Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0452
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
835 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast VA...Central to Northeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160035Z - 160635Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding will continue to be a
threat going through midnight across areas of central to southeast
VA, and especially central to northeast NC. Locally considerable
urban flash flooding and life-threatening impacts will remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...The early-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped convective mass continuing to evolve across areas of
central to southeast VA, with some of the most vigorous activity
including overshooting tops noted over parts of central to
northeast NC. The convection continues to be focusing in close
proximity to a stationary with a substantial pool of instability
still pooled nearby. MLCAPE values are highest over much of
central and eastern NC in general with values of 1500 to 2500+
J/kg noted based on the latest RAP analysis.

Convergent low-level flow nosing up across central to northeast NC
over the next few hours to the south of the front will be a key
facilitator of convection becoming more pronounced and focused
across this region, with potentially some of this still capable of
nosing up into southeast VA near the Hampton Roads vicinity.
However, many areas of central VA have already largely been
convectively overturned.

PWs are a bit higher than they were around midday and are now
upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches along the VA/NC border, and this
coupled with the instability and modest shear profiles should
easily favor rainfall rates reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the
stronger cells. This is supported by the 23Z WoFS output which
shows 50+ percent probabilities of seeing 2+ inch/hour rainfall
rates across central to northeast NC over the next few hours.

The 50th percentile of 23Z WoFS 6-hour QPF output shows a swath of
2 to 4 inch rainfall totals across areas of central to northeast
NC, with 90th percentile data showing spotty 6+ inch totals as a
result of an environment conducive for cell-training.

Lesser rainfall amounts at this point are expected farther north
across southeast VA, but areas near Virginia Beach on down through
Chesapeake may locally see a couple of additional inches of rain.
However, generally the greatest focus of additional heavy rains
and concerns for additional flash flooding should be across
central to northeast NC based on the collective array of recent
hires model guidance which also includes the HRRR and RRFS.

Given the rainfall rates/totals, and locally sensitive antecedent
conditions that remain in place, scattered areas of additional
flash flooding will be likely going through midnight. And some
locally considerable and life-threatening urban flash flooding
impacts will remain possible.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37627708 37417638 36927566 35837551 34987681
            34747769 34687877 34967929 35357936 36097916
            36548021 36948011 37137941 37107835 37327775
            37537748