Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
918 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170118Z - 170630Z

SUMMARY...A strong MCS advancing across northeast MN will continue
to drive concentrated and heavy areas of rainfall over the next
few hours. Some additional areas of flash flooding will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong cold-topped convective complex continues to
ride northeastward up across northeast MN this evening in
association with a compact shortwave trough and associated wave of
low pressure. Strong shortwave dynamics interacting with a nose of
focused elevated instability and warm air advection riding up
toward northeast MN will favor the convection maintaining its
organization through the remainder of the evening hours.

Rainfall rates with the additional storms over the next 2 to 3
hours will continue to be on the order of 1 to 2 inches/hour given
the concentration of instability near what appears to be a
tightening mid-level MCV southeast of Hibbing. Given some of the
concentrated banded nature of the convection near the MCV feature,
some of the additional rains may reach 3 to 4+ inches going
through the late-evening hours which is supported by the latest
RRFS guidance.

The antecedent conditions are rather dry across the area, but with
the latest radar/satellite trends and hires CAM guidance,
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   48259207 48229014 47918971 47449088 47089156
            47239229 47189297 47789305