Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0495
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to West-Central TX...Southeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230318Z - 230800Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue into a portion of the overnight
period. Some additional scattered areas of flash flooding will be
likely from the high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing a
few slow-moving convective clusters across portions of southwest
TX and into southeast NM. The convection is embedded within a very
moist and moderately unstable environment characterized by PWs of
1.5 to 1.7 inches, and MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.

Some weak vort energy is noted in WV satellite imagery lifting
northeastward across the region within the deeper layer southwest
flow over the region, and this is providing for some localized
stronger forcing/ascent for this activity. Cooling convective tops
have been noted over the last hour, and based off MRMS data, some
of the rainfall rates have been as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour.

Over the next few hours, the slow cell-motions associated with the
convection will favor some storm totals that may reach 3 to 4+
inches, and this is supported by some of the 00Z HREF solutions.
The HREF consensus generally supports the greater concentrations
of heavy rainfall focusing over southwest TX where the guidance
indicates somewhat stronger mid-level forcing/vort energy.

Given the additional rainfall threat, some additional scattered
areas of flash flooding are generally likely.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34290281 34050204 32930211 31090324 29560370
            29530438 29860484 30460492 30940537 31440514
            32630402 33950347