Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0496
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231813Z - 240010Z

Summary...Terrain-based, slow-moving thunderstorms will continue
to develop across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Sacramento Mtns
of southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Increased moisture from
yesterday and slow storm movement should allow for rainfall rates
of 1.5 inch/hr, with targeted flash flooding becoming increasingly
likely.

Discussion...Terrain based thunderstorm activity is developing
over the Sacramento, Guadalupe, Davis, and surrounding terrain.  
Light flow (mean layer wind 10-15kt out of the S or SSW) will
maintain slow/terrain based movement through the afternoon hours.
Moisture has notably increased from yesterday with PW now 1.5 to
1.7 inches (3 standard deviations above normal) and MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg will continue to allow rapid growth.

As convective coverage increases this afternoon, 1.5 inch/hr rain
rates will fall on areas of sensitive terrain including burn scars
in the Sacramento Mtns around Ruidoso, NN which have been
particularly vulnerable. Hourly FFG is generally 1.5 inches/hr, so
at least localized exceedance is expected across the area. Flash
flooding is likely around terrain through this afternoon with
increasing likelihood across the region into this evening as more
organized development occurs, so stay tuned for further updates.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33970522 33190444 31880383 30760278 29840247
            29230262 28850345 29810498 30780575 31710599
            33010604 33930589