Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...West TX, High Plains of NM, far western TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241851Z - 250000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly expand this
afternoon across the High Plains of NM and surrounding areas.
Rainfall rates in more intense cores will exceed 1"/hr, leading to
localized rainfall totals of 2-3" or more. Flash flooding is
likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic across the Southwest this
afternoon shows a rapid expansion of showers and thunderstorms
aligned from far West Texas northeast through the western
Panhandle of Texas. This activity is building rapidly in response
to impressive and intensifying deep layer ascent driven by a
combination of height falls from an amplifying trough over the
Great Basin, a favorably placed upper jet streak, and a potent
MCV/convectively enhanced shortwave lifting out of Chihuahua,
Mexico. This lift is acting upon extreme thermodynamics
characterized by record PWs measured via regiona U/A soundings of
1.4 to 1.6 inches overlapped with SBCAPE that has climbed to
1000-2000 J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis. With a large
mid-level ridge anchored to the east, and the amplifying trough to
the west, the region will remain pinched within moist flow
allowing for ongoing convection to expand and intensify through
the evening as reflected by available CAMs.

Recent reflectivity from KFDX and KHDX WSR-88Ds has expanded
rapidly in conjunction with a surge of Lightning Cast
probabilities and deepening updrafts on the day-cloud phase RGB
from GOES-E. This has manifested as radar-estimated rainfall rates
as high as 1.5"/hr. Although storms have been generally of pulse
variety with limited life spans due to weak bulk shear, some
organization is occurring along a pronounced 850-700mb convergence
axis as low-level winds weaken out of Texas. This, as well as the
potent MCV emerging into West Texas, will help to focus
thunderstorms over the High Plains of NM through the afternoon.
Initially, fresh convection will move slowly as noted by weak
winds in the sfc-600mb layer of regional soundings, but then
eventually translate more rapidly northeast as they deepen. Still,
Corfidi vectors will remain just 5-10 kts indicating that cells
will generally move slowly today. With rain rates progged by both
HREF and REFS ensembles to exceed 1"/hr (50-60% chance), and HRRR
15-min rainfall as much as 0.5", this could result in 2-3" of rain
with locally higher amounts through the evening.

Parts of eastern NM and West Texas have been wet the past 7 days,
with AHPS measuring rainfall departures that are as much as 300%
of normal. This has lowered FFG to as low as 1-2"/3hrs, with much
lower FFG likely across sensitive burn scars and terrain features.
There is at least a 30-50% chance of exceedance of this FFG, and
flash flooding is likely over more sensitive soils and urban
areas. Should this heavy rain fall atop the most vulnerable areas,
like the Ruidoso Complex, locally significant impacts are likely.


Weiss

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36660298 36540251 36190215 35300242 34350288
            33130314 31800362 30860418 30670517 31130616
            31470655 31810675 32490660 33510612 34200568
            35360468 36380375