Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250430Z - 251030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will continue overnight across areas of
central and eastern NM down through southwest TX. A combination of
heavier rainfall rates and slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
will likely foster additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The mid-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
slow-moving shortwave trough ejecting across western NM which is
helping to drive a broader area of ascent downstream across much
of central and eastern NM down through southwest TX. This is
interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass and is
currently sustaining a fairly large area of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity.

PWs across the region are on the order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches which
represents the 90th to 95th percentile of climatology. The 00Z EPZ
RAOB showed a rather high WBZ level with a strong concentration of
moisture in the mid and upper levels of the vertical column. This
is further confirmed in CIRA-ALPW data which shows a very
well-defined tropical connection of moisture lifting north from
Mexico and up across the southern Rockies/High Plains around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the
Eastern U.S.

This very moist environment will favor highly efficient rainfall
processes for enhanced rain rates. The latest RAP analysis shows a
rather strong pool of instability currently over southeast NM with
the aid of moist low-level southeast flow, and the MUCAPE values
currently remain as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. This available
thermodynamic energy coupled with the approaching shortwave
trough, proximity of a weak MCV, and weak outflow-induced
low-level forcing should maintain a solid threat for heavy showers
and thunderstorms going well into the overnight hours. Localized
orographic ascent near areas of high terrain, including the
Sacramento Mountains will further enhance the convective potential.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms will likely be 1 to 2+
inches/hour given the anomalously moist environment, and the
relatively slow cell-motions may allow for some storm totals
overnight to reach 2 to 4+ inches. Areas of flash flooding will be
likely as a result, and there will be concerns overnight for
notable arroyo flash flooding. Additionally, the burn scar complex
(Blue-2, Salt, South Fork, and McBride) in the Sacramento
Mountains will need to be carefully monitored for additional
focused flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36130397 36030307 34890321 33100407 31490443
            30870526 31170589 31400628 31750676 31880755
            32650771 33370725 34390640 35230542