Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...far western Virginia, southern West Virginia, far
eastern Kentucky, far northeastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280232Z - 280600Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should continue for another 2-4
hours.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to develop in earnest
across southwestern Virginia and vicinity.  This area has
experienced a relative minimum in convective activity up until the
past hour, enabling persistence of surface-based instability
despite the time of day.  SPC mesoanalyses indicate broad, weak
confluence within the low-level flow field across this region,
which was combining with weak terrain influences and a
moist/unstable environment (1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5-1.75 inch PW
values) to promote strong updrafts.  Peak rain rates are exceeding
1.5 inches/hr in a few spots beneath the most persistent
convection, which isn't surprising given the slow movement of
cells and their outflow-dominant nature.  These rates are
exceeding local FFG and likely prompting localized impacts in a
few areas.

Despite the relative uptick in convective trends over the past 1-2
hours, models/obs suggest that a weakening trend will eventually
commence due to widespread convective overturning.  This process
may take another 2-4 hours to weaken convection, however, with
deep convection continuing through at least 06Z or so.  Isolated,
locally significant flash flooding can be expected during this
timeframe.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38128208 37498071 36788066 36038304 36708397
            37338366