Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Missouri...Far Southeast
Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291345Z - 291930Z

SUMMARY...Weakening convective complexes still have potential for
additional 1-3" locally crossing areas already flooded this
morning.  Localized flash flooding still remains possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows scattered re-activation of
scattered thunderstorms/cooling tops extending from dying
MCS/Squall line across SE NEB/IA moving into NE KS/NW MO all the
way south across central MO to southeast MO where remaining
isentropic ascent continues with scattered clusters.   Upwind
areas across E KS and SW MO remain conditionally unstable with
ample deep layer moisture up to 1.75-2" of total PWats and capped
CAPEs up to 2500 J/kg which will further increase with clearing
skies.   The old MCV with the leading convective complex/WAA
regime continues to decouple and slide eastward through the deep
layer flow across E MO, but the resulting LLJ still is fairly
strong for the diurnal minimum with TWX/EAX/SGF VWP suite
continuing to show solid 30-40kt decelerating confluent flow
toward the old outflow/isentropic gradient across west-central to
southeast MO still able to overcome the weaker capping to support
the remaining convective clusters particularly on the confluent
upwind edge from Bates to Miller county.  Given the moisture flux
and buoyancy, scattered cells/clusters will move with favorable
orientation for short-term training as well as intersecting areas
affected last night/this morning across south-central MO; given
broad scattered Tcu across the Ozark Plateau, additional
development may occur hear as well, expanding the risk for flash
flooding rainfall totals (1-3") south and west of the already
flooded areas in SE MO.

Upstream, the strong outflow/squall line is intersecting the
northern apex of the instability axis across NE KS and strong
convergence along the leading edge is sprouting stronger/broader
updrafts with cores that are back-shearing over the colder
under-cutting air, suggesting increased overall duration of
intense rainfall can be expected over the next hour or so.  In
addition, the squall line is merging with older more scattered WAA
cells lingering from the prior wave in combination over the Kansas
City Metro area.  Propagation will be more due south than
southeast given the available instability westward to the old
track of rain; but a balance may be stuck for intersection of this
newer 1.5-3" totals over areas having 1-3" this morning. 

While overall coverage is likely to be more scattered in nature,
the combination of rates over recently saturated grounds will
continue the risk for a few more incidents of flash flooding
through the next 3-5 hours as the LLJ further diminishes and
capping further increases.  

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   40559416 40209305 39449183 38279032 37498949
            36958946 36739007 36799152 37249318 38109480
            39259652 40109708 40509556