Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Corrected for flash flooding "likely" tag

Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300632Z - 301032Z

Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75
inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
since 00Z.  Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow
aloft currently.  Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that
convection has begun to take on more of a training character,
focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at
850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs.  The convection is
embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 
Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far
southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of
southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall.  The
current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals
area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of
Bloomington and vicinity.

MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that
has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so. 
Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch
range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves
across the region.  Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the
persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant
impacts are possible.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846
            38858809 39258725