Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0558
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Central New Mexico and Far Southern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301718Z - 302200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are initiating over the mountains of far
southern Colorado and central New Mexico in the late morning, and
should continue to develop into the early afternoon. Any storms
are likely to be very slow moving to nearly stationary, which will
pose a threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
wherever the storms develop. Burn scars in New Mexico would be
particularly vulnerable if storms develop nearby, but a threat of
flash flooding will exist across the region in general.

Discussion...As of 11 AM MDT, thunderstorms were beginning to
develop in the favored mountain locations from south-central
Colorado through central New Mexico. This is expected to continue
over the next several hours as convective temperature is achieved,
and hi-res model guidance is consistent in showing a high
probability of storms through at least 4 PM MDT (22Z), but
possibly through the remainder of the afternoon. Available
moisture and instability is not particularly anomalous in this
case, so the threat of localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
should be driven more by extremely slow storm motions. Deep layer
mean wind is generally around 5 knots or less, and simulated
reflectivity on the hi-res guidance shows storms more-or-less
anchored to near their development locations for at least a couple
hours. So even though the instantaneous to 30-min rain rates may
not be exceptional, heavy rain could be sustained long enough to
produce localized rainfall maxima in excess of 2 inches,
especially in New Mexico. This could be enough to lead to flash
flooding based on flash flood guidance values. Burn scar locations
or urban areas would be particularly vulnerable, but any impact
would be dependent on storms developing close enough to those
locations.

Lamers

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37730678 37410603 37500499 36850473 36080513
            35390520 34810557 34180552 33490550 32820574
            32830625 34060655 34900662 35610698 36200727
            36780689 37510728