Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on X
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0568
(Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0568

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0568
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011750Z - 012250Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving
north-northwestward into South Texas are capable of producing
isolated instances of flash flooding and 2-3"/hr rates through at
least early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery depicts
north-south bands of tropical downpours streaming north-northwest
into South Texas from the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico. These
thunderstorms are occurring on the northwest periphery of a
mid-level low churning over north-central Barry (can be tracked to
the remnants of former T.S. Barry). Maximum estimated hourly
rainfall rates from MRMS are around 2-2.5" over the last hour or
so, with 1.55" recorded at the Brownsville International Airport
over the last 3 hours. While this initial band appears to hang up
along the coast, a separate one approaching from far northeast
Mexico may provide greater coverage of heavy rainfall this
afternoon based on recent radar scans and strong southerly 850-700
flow around 20-25 kts. This is allowing PWs to remain well above
what's necessary for intense rainfall rates as values climb to
near 2.5" (over the 95th climatological percentile per the 00z
ECENS). Additionally MLCAPE values of 1000 J/kg remain just inland
from the Gulf as 2000 J/kg linger in the inflow region over the
far western Gulf. Even though storm motions may be fast and on a
north-northwesterly direction, upwind propagation vectors are weak
and may lead to backbuilding towards the higher instability over
the western Gulf. This supports an environment for additional
heavy rainfall that may compound to lead to isolated flash
flooding concerns over a region with relatively high FFG.

3-hr FFG in far South Texas remains around 3", locally lower along
the Rio Grande Valley. Even though CAMs are highly uncertain
regarding the northward extent of heaviest thunderstorms, 12z HREF
probs of at least 3" in 6-hrs (ending 21z) are around 30% for the
southern Rio Grande Valley region of South Texas. This again when
combined with current radar/satellite supports the potential for
localized instances of flash flooding.

Snell

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   27889929 27799841 27129731 26369696 25819719
            25769779 26179878 26749953 27449971
Download in GIS format:    Shapefile  | KML



Last Updated: 148 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 10-Jan-2025 11:25:04 GMT