Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0569
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011824Z - 020024Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms are advancing ahead of a
sweeping cold front and producing rainfall rates briefly over
2"/hr. These storms are expected to continue through this
afternoon and move over particularly flash flood-prone terrain.

DISCUSSION...Current radar observations depict widely scattered
thunderstorms pushing eastward across the eastern Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians. Some storms over western NC and VA were
initially tied to the terrain, but have begun to slowly progress
east-northeast. Otherwise, thunderstorm activity spanning from
eastern TN to WV is ahead of an advancing cold front and upper
level trough clearly evident in GOES-East WV-ML imagery. This
region also continues to fall within a favorable right entrance
region of an upper jet racing northeastward from northern OH.

PWATs remain high and above 2" for parts of eastern KY per SPC's
mesoanalysis, with mean layer winds out of the west-southwest.
This supports the ongoing and expected heavy rainfall rates as
storms progress eastward. SBCAPE also continues to increase and is
estimated above 3000 J/kg across southwest WV as of 18z. However,
given the current coverage of thunderstorms in an east-west
orientation, repeating rounds of storms are possible and likely to
lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. 3-hr FFG in this
region spans from 3" to as low as 1.5" along the Appalachian
crest. The 12z HREF highlights a large region as having 40-60%
chances for exceeding 2" per 3-hrs by 00z tonight across southern
WV, eastern KY, and along the central Appalachians of southwest VA
and northwest NC. The available environment combined with ongoing
radar represations and CAM output leads to the expectation for
additional scattered flash flooding, with the most likely impacts
for the typically flood-prone terrain.

Snell

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39488018 39187933 38187932 37187970 36348062
            36018218 36098392 36558473 37328458 38468326
            39308130