Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0607 (2019)
(Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0607

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0607
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...Southern/Central Louisiana...Western/Central
Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151413Z - 152013Z

Summary...Dangerous, significant flash flooding is likely to
continue across south-central Louisiana into west-central
Mississippi as training rain bands associated with T.D. Barry
produce hourly totals 2-3". Additional rainfall through 20Z may
approach 5-8" locally.

Discussion...As of 14Z, radar imagery showed a persistent heavy
rainfall band oriented southwest to northeast across south-central
Louisiana into west-central Mississippi. Total rainfall amounts
locally across Avoyelles, Evangeline, Allen, Beauregard, and
Calcasieu parishes has reached 10-15 inches where significant
flash flooding has been occurring.

The environment will remain very conducive for significant heavy
rainfall and flash flooding into the afternoon hours. SBCAPE of
around 2000 J/kg exists across the outlook area within an axis of
highly anomalous moisture pool (2.2"+). The deep layer mean flow
across the region is oriented parallel to the storm cell motion
(southwest to northeast) and this suggests repeated, training
convection with rebuilding likely on the south/southwest flank
over the hardest hit areas already. All of the activity continues
to align itself along localized areas of stronger boundary layer
moisture convergence which is expected to persist through the
afternoon.

The latest HREF and other hi-res guidance shows stripes of heavy
rainfall to persist into the afternoon hours. The 06Z HREF 6-hour
mean shows widespread 2-4" amounts with local maximum totals in
the 5-8" range. This is likely to fall across areas that have
already seen the higher end totals (10-15") across south-central
Louisiana. Hourly totals are likely to be in the 2-3" range with
some extreme hourly totals near 4" possible given the deep
tropical moisture in place.

Dangerous, significant flash flooding is likely, especially across
south-central Louisiana given the already saturated soils. Flash
Flood Guidance for 1-hour is 0.25" or less, so this additional
rainfall will worsen ongoing flooding in the area.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33818889 32838876 31808949 30659070 29899119
            29639229 29749318 29679349 29679399 29949426
            30259412 30639360 31259253 31889203 32449137
            33079115 33749046


Last Updated: 1014 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT