Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070434Z - 070900Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase across portions
of central TX over the next few hours with areas of slow movement
and locally heavy rainfall. Localized hourly rainfall in the 1 to
3 inch range is expected, possibly leading to isolated flash flood
concerns across the region.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery across central TX appeared to be
showing the beginning stages of renewed shower/thunderstorm
development as of 04Z just east of I-35 from Austin to Jarrell.
GOES East infrared imagery helped place a remnant MCV in the
vicinity of Llano County, embedded within broader cyclonic flow
tied to an elongated 700 mb low/trough that has been lingering
over central TX, evident on 700 mb VAD wind plots. At the surface,
a remnant rain-cooled outflow boundary was analyzed from just
southeast of LHB to near BAZ and southwest to COT. Since 00Z,
increased 925-850 mb wind speeds of 15-25 kt at KGRK and KEWX
match RAP depictions of winds in this layer, which has helped to
support an northward increase in MLCAPE past I-10 into portions of
central TX. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed a plume of 1000
to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE nosing northward from the middle TX coast
into the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Dallas/Fort Worth
containing little to no inhibition.

RAP forecasts indicate 925-850 mb winds are near their peak in the
short term, with slight weakening over the east and westward
translation of relatively stronger wind speeds toward 09Z.
However, the circulation around the remnant MCV and presence of
the outflow boundary and overrunning potential within the high PW
environment (2.0 to 2.3 inches via SPC mesoanalysis data) is
expected to continue to support scattered shower and thunderstorm
development over the next few hours. Weak steering flow and the
relatively stronger low level flow will support the potential for
training and back-building of cells. While the coverage of these
cells remains a bit uncertain, the environment will be capable of
generating 1-3 in/hr rainfall totals. Given the continuing
sensitivity of soils across portions of the region, renewed flash
flood concerns through 09Z appear possible.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31739711 31279664 30439657 29439708 28919834
            28899895 29159973 29749994 30319974 30649943
            31089860 31429816