Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0609
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...far northern NC into southern and central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070536Z - 071000Z

Summary...Heavy rain associated with T.D. Chantal will continue to
spread northward into VA overnight. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches
is expected with additional totals of 2-4 inches possible through
11Z. Flash flooding remains likely, especially early on, although
some decrease in the threat may occur by later this morning.

Discussion...05Z radar imagery showed the core of Chantal's
heaviest rainfall occurring south of Halifax, VA, along and just
north of the NC/VA border. This area of heavy rain was displaced
roughly 20-40 miles north of the surface low due to vertical
tilting of the cyclone structure toward the north and west with
height and heavy rain tied to the mid-level center. Observed
hourly rainfall within the relatively compact cluster of heavy
rain has been 1.0 to 2.5 inches between 04-05Z and movement has
been toward the NNE over the past 3 hours. Trends in satellite
imagery showed infrared cloud tops warming overall but with
occasional bursts of colder cloud tops over southern VA.

A continued translation of Chantal's mid-level center toward the
northeast is expected over the next 3-5 hours, following steering
between troughing to the west and a ridge over the western
Atlantic. RAP forecasts indicate some weakening of low level
convergence northwest of Chantal's surface low between 06Z-09Z,
along with lowering instability which may act to decrease rainfall
intensity and the threat for flash flooding. However, tropical
moisture with PW values up to about 2.3 inches and favorable
outflow within the northern semicircle of the system's circulation
will continue to support bursts of heavier rain. The slow movement
of Chantal will continue to favor areas of flash flooding over
southern VA, especially in the short term, with the flash flood
threat continuing into central VA later this morning.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37977773 37557751 36867780 36347848 36287912
            36567934 37257901 37877839