Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0614
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern Big Country & Edwards Plateau of
west-central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071930Z - 080030Z

SUMMARY...Clusters seeking out remaining unstable environment. 
Still remains capable of 2"/hr rates and scattered incidents of
flash flooding remain likely for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows clusters of thunderstorms starting
to shift west and southward as modest cold pools are supporting
forward propagation/outflow boundaries.  GOES-E Visible also shows
congested confluent inflow bands responding to the thunderstorm
clusters especially across Schleicher and Sutton counties while
more traditional cu streets show solid inflow from the south
across Edwards and W Kerr county.   This is a signal of competing
environments for thunderstorm activity through the evening. 
Inflow and increased insolation enhancing unstable environment
exist west toward the eastern Pecos River Valley and W Concho
Valley; while better deep layer moisture axis and upper-level
outflow support exists eastward toward the I-35 corridor. Some low
level drying combined with 700-300mb drying aloft noted in the
CIRA LPW shows gradient of total PWats decreasing from 2" to 1.4"
near the Pecos River, though MLCAPE axis of 2000-2500 J/kg
connects from the Rio Grande Valley into the Pecos Valley.  Aloft,
the sheared 700-500mb axis remains very moist from the Hill
country northeastward with best vorticity center remaining north
of the current complex, likely maintaining the 15-20kts of
southerly confluent inflow along the southwest edge of the
complex.   Entrance region to eastern side of larger scale ridge
over northern Old Mexico into the Permian basin combined with
approach of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell
over the Gulf supports solid divergence/outflow aloft but east of
the best low level forcing.  

As such, convection is likely to continue to propagate along the
outflow and into the southerly inflow and unstable environment. 
This will maintain some stronger cells but likely with drier air
ingestion, will limit rainfall efficiency (espcially compared to
prior days or even this morning) as well as still encouraging
forward propagation limiting overall totals.  Still rates up to
2"/hr and localized spots of 2-4" remain possible especially given
increased probability of colliding outflows and storm scale
interactions including cell mergers.  In these very isolated
incidents, focused/localized flash flooding will still be likely,
but those incidents should be reducing with time toward 00z given
increasing disconnect between best forcing elements.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32599955 32289951 31039952 29680007 29640096
            29950156 30530178 31300165 31780128 32060093
            32500005