Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0675
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132210Z - 140410Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
portions of the OH Valley going through the evening hours.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will continue to be
possible, and especially around the more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cold convective
tops associated with heavy showers and thunderstorms across
southeast IL and portions of central and southern IN. The activity
remains focused ahead of a well-defined mid-level vort
center/shortwave trough and an accompanying area of surface low
pressure which is transiting a frontal zone.

MLCAPE values over the Lower OH Valley are generally on the order
of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and this coupled with anomalous PWs of 2.0
to 2.25 inches will continue to favor very high rainfall rates
that will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour.

Generally the convection should continue to advance off to the
east, but there will be some relatively slow cell-motions, and
pockets of localized cell-training and cell-merger activity that
may allow for some rainfall totals to reach as high as 3 to 4+
inches by late this evening.

This is supported by a consensus of the 18Z HREF and 12Z REFS
guidance. However, the latest hires guidance does appear to be a
bit slow with the overall downstream convective evolution. Based
on the latest satellite and radar trends, convection should
advance across southern IN and into western OH by late-evening.

Given the high rainfall rates and localized concerns for
cell-training, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will
continue to be possible. This will include concerns for the more
sensitive urbanized locations.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40928345 40288258 39458270 38548417 37838724
            38068854 38868916 39688827 40588572