Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0716
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...North-Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170152Z - 170700Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to develop overnight
along a stationary front extending nearly parallel to I-70. 2 to
2.5"/hour rainfall rates are likely to continue in the heaviest of
these thunderstorms including of the KC metro and possibly St.
Louis.

Discussion...Broad convergence of high moisture air (PW around
2.1") along a stationary front with extreme instability (MLCAPE 
of 3500 J/kg has allow heavy thunderstorms to rapidly develop over
the KC metro and over central MO. This development will continue
as 20kt westerly mean layer flow maintains some shear. Hourly
rainfall of 2 to 2.5" has been estimated from KEAX over  the KC
metro and NW of Columbia. This area has near normal FFG given no
precip in the past day, but these rates will continue to cause
scattered instances of flash flooding overnight. Backbuilding into
the flow will prolong the heavy rain and could cause considerable
flash flooding through the overnight.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39709474 39599181 39439066 39069009 38179032
            38039093 37999294 38269475 38419594 39489627