Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0736
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180030Z - 180630Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing over eastern New Mexico will
continue to expand and shift east toward and along a front that
extends over the Texas Panhandle this evening. Additional 2"/hr
rainfall rates will drive a scattered flash flood threat through
the overnight.

Discussion...Regional radar depicts linear segments and scattered
storms up and down eastern NM with some scattered cells along a
frontal boundary in the southern Texas Panhandle. An axis of 1.3
to 1.7" PW is over eastern NM with increasing PW to the east along
the frontal boundary with ample SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
Southeasterly flow veers southerly overnight as an LLJ sets up
providing fresh inflow and fuel for overnight continued
convection. FFG is still low, about 1"/hr over northeast NM from
convection last night with lower FFG. Scattered flash flooding can
be expected across the outlook area, particularly over northeast
NM as noted by recent HRRRs.
Overnight convection should warrant a followup MPD, so stay tuned,
particularly over the TX Panhandle overnight.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37460360 37170241 35330169 35290030 34529984
            34020098 33100419 35060469 36060565 36840454