Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0751
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern KY...North-Central TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190048Z - 190545Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the evening
hours. Additional areas of flash flooding, including some urban
flooding concerns, will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows heavy
showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of far southern KY and
north-central TN. Much of the activity has been aided by close
proximity to a front just north of the region, but more recently
there has been some additional activity seen developing further
south close to a convergence axis/trough south of the front.

MLCAPE values along this surface trough are on the order of 2500
to 3500 J/kg and indicative of strong instability. Meanwhile,
moisture is quite deep with PWs near 2.25 inches. This will favor
high rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour, and given the weak
steering flow over the region, some localized totals of 3 to 4+
inches will be possible by late this evening before the activity
weakens. This is supported by the latest HRRR guidance.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible over the next
few hours as a result. This will include concerns for some urban
flooding impacts which may involve the Nashville, TN metropolitan
area.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36868676 36728573 36408531 35868555 35688642
            35738757 35708875 36158901 36578830 36778750