Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on X
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0755 (2020)
(Issued at 1238 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0755

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0755
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141547Z - 142030Z

Summary...A narrow outer band of Sally will continue to spread
inland over eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle from
Apalachee Bay through the afternoon making for a heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding threat.

Discussion...Three inches of rain have been estimated in northern
Franklin as well as southern Liberty and Calhoun counties on the
FL Panhandle from KTLH from a persistent outer band of Sally
spreading in from the Apalachee Bay. This band is drifting north
with southern Wakulla county now experiencing heavy rain. Ample
moisture is spreading in with the band with 2.3" PWs (about 2.5
standard deviations above normal) confirmed by GPS sensors. There
is an instability gradient along the shore with about 2500 J/kg
SBCAPE over the Apalachee Bay and 1500 J/kg over much of the FL
Panhandle which is contributing to diminishing rain rates as the
band shifts inland.

Rainfall of generally 1.5"/hr, but up to 2"/hr have been estimated
by KTLH and given the slow northward advancement, local areas have
received just about 3" which can be expected to continue going
forward this afternoon. Flash flood guidance is generally 3 to 4"
in 3 hours, so local exceedance of these guidance values is
possible through the rest of the afternoon as the band continues
to re-form and spread inland before slowing diminishing farther
inland (by about Washington and Jackson Co). Given the trajectory
and inflow from Apalachee Bay this band looks to remain south of
I-10 through the afternoon, but is expected to get into at least
southern portions of the Tallahassee metro where drainage issues
are anticipated.


Jackson

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30598540 30518478 30268416 29988389 29858416
            29818459 30138520 30508571


Last Updated: 1238 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 10-Jan-2025 11:25:04 GMT