Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0762...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Corrected for Typo

Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161425Z - 162025Z

Summary...As Hurricane Sally continues to drift to the northeast,
very heavy rains are expected  near and east of the center across
the western Florida Panhandle and Lower Alabama.  Meanwhile,
feeder bands east of the center continue to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of the central Florida Panhandle. 
Additional catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is likely.

Discussion...Near the center, GOES imagery shows cooling cloud
tops just east and north of the center, with rainfall rate
estimates increasing across Escambria and Santa Rosa counties in
Florida.  With the trends expected to continue as Sally drifts to
the northeast, additional very rainfall is likely over the next
few hours across the far western Florida Panhandle into Lower
Alabama.  Operational and experimental runs of the HRRR show the
potential for additional amounts of 3-5 inches across this area
over the next 6-hrs.  This of course will impact some of the areas
that have already been inundated with heavy rains.
   
Farther east, two significant feeder bands -- one extending north
from near Panama City and another near Apalachicola -- continue to
impact the Florida Panhandle.  Eglin AFB radar (KEVX) continues to
show rainfall rates upward of 2.5 inches/hr within the core of
these rainbands as they shift slowly east across the central
Florida Panhandle.  Recent runs of the operational and
experimental HRRR have shown the potential for localized 6-hr
accumulations of 3-6 inches within these bands.  Here also, these
bands will continue to impact areas already impacted by heavy
amounts -- further exacerbating ongoing flooding.

Elsewhere across the highlighted region, there is a good model
signal for heavy rains extending farther north and east across
southern southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia -- with 6/hr
amounts upward of 3-inches possible.

Pereira

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32108674 31878524 30608417 29548500 30098575
            30178655 30308726 30678760 30898788 31528777
            31768748