Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0769
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...Northern and Eastern KY...Southwest VA...Southern
WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210100Z - 210600Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected this evening. Sensitive/moist antecedent conditions
coupled with locally high rainfall rates and some cell-training
concerns will likely promote some additional areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with regional radar data shows a general northwest to southeast
oriented axis of broken shower and thunderstorm activity extending
across northern to eastern KY and down into far southern WV and
southwest VA. Meanwhile, additional convection with more
organization to it is seen off to the northwest across southern IN.

Sufficient levels of early evening instability remain in place
across the region along with surface moisture convergence into an
outflow boundary for convective sustenance at least through much
of the evening time frame. MLCAPE values across central and
eastern KY are still as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and there
continues to be some elevated shear profiles with as much as 30 to
40 kts of effective bulk shear. The combination of this along with
PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches will continue to support very high
rainfall rates capable at least for the next few hours of still
reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

Additional rainfall totals where any additional cell-training
takes place may reach as high as 3 to 4 inches. Some of the best
potential for this may tend to be over northern KY given the more
organized upstream convection over southern IN that will likely
continue to advance southeastward into northern KY over the next
few hours. Given the convective trends and lingering
moist/unstable environment, some additional areas of flash
flooding will be likely this evening before conditions then
improve later tonight.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39048492 38938366 38558210 37948067 37418044
            36748070 36568137 36718252 37608422 38288520
            38728527