Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0776
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...Southern Indiana into Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011955Z - 020155Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered flash flooding is expected over
portions of southern Indiana into Kentucky this afternoon into the
evening hours.

Discussion...A relatively small convective complex rapidly
developed over the past 3 hours across portions of IL and
IN...although the quick forward progression has generally limited
the flash flood risk. The downstream environment is quite
favorable for convection, with MLCAPE upwards of 3000 j/kg and PWs
near 2". Recent radar imagery is finally beginning to show some
convective development downstream of the MCS, which will likely
locally increase the flash flood risk over the next few hours
across portions of southern IN into KY. The convective line will
likely stay quick moving, however we should see an uptick in cells
merging into the line given the recent increase in downstream
development. Where these cell mergers occur, some instances of
flash flooding can be expected. We are also seeing some signs of
brief training along the southern extent of the MCS, and this
tendency may continue going forward as well.

The 18z HRRR has an okay handle on the expected evolution going
forward, although it is probably under doing the downstream
development to some extent. Thus while the HRRR is showing totals
peaking around 2", would expect the occasional cell mergers and
brief training on the southern extent of the line will result in
some areas exceeding 3" of rainfall over the next several hours.
Recent rainfall has resulted in well above average soil saturation
levels for portions of far southern IN into KY, which should
result in increased runoff and an isolated to scattered flash
flood risk over the next several hours as this convection moves
off to the southeast.

Chenard

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39128644 38828554 38638521 38048444 37158423
            36978452 36868517 36878578 37078767 37288795
            37658809 38068746 38348713 38878688