Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1003
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Areas affected...eastern Alabama, central Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131813Z - 140013Z

Summary...Showers/thunderstorms are moving slowly across the
discussion area while producing areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. 
These rates should persist across the region through most of the
remaining daylight period, posing at least a localized flash flood
risk.

Discussion...Scattered, slow-moving convection appears to be
focused near/just south of the US 80 corridor from east of
Montgomery though Columbus and Warner Robins.  Observations and
objective analyses suggest the presence of a weak, east-west
oriented boundary separating somewhat drier/more stable air
originating from the Piedmont from an unstable, tropical airmass
partially resulting from the inland progression of Francine.  The
unstable, weakly capped airmass near the boundary and focused
confluence was contributing to persistent updraft development in a
region that has wet soils from 2-8 inch rainfall amounts over the
past 3 days.  FFGs are locally low in this region (generally in
the 2 inch/3-hr range near Columbus and slightly higher with
eastward extent).  Ongoing rain rates of 1-2 inches/hr are
occurring on a spotty basis, suggestive of an isolated flash flood
threat in the short term.

Models (particularly the HREF) suggest continued development of
convection through the afternoon.  It is likely that the axis of
confluence will move little, resulting in a continued focus for
slow-moving shower/thunderstorm activity and occasional rain rates
exceeding 1 inch/hr at times.  The persistence of rainfall could
result in areas of 2-3 inch totals in the discussion area through
00Z this evening.  Given wet/sensitive ground conditions, isolated
to scattered flash flood instances appear probable.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33138283 32888205 32078227 31748414 31778565
            32308571 32898551 33008459