MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0013
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
946 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA INTO NRN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 180145Z - 180745Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM NERN MO...SERN IA
INTO NRN IL WITH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING.

DISCUSSION...01Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING WWD ACROSS STL  INTO A 1002 SFC LOW ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER...AND THEN SWWD THROUGH OK TO NEAR FDR. 00Z RAOB DATA
CONTINUED TO SHOW S TO SW FLOW NEAR 850 MB BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS
AT OUN AND SGF WHICH PARALLELS THE MEAN FLOW OF ROUGHLY THE SAME
MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION. OBSERVATIONS OF PWAT PER RAOB AND TPW BLENDED
PW DATA SHOWED 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OK INTO
CNTRL MO ALONG WITH 2500 J/KG CAPE WITH MINIMAL CIN AT SGF. 

AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT
FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN NEAR AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND
THESE TRENDS ARE ALREADY BEING SEEN ON RADAR. SHORT TERM MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THE SFC LOW ALONG THE OK/MO BORDER WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TO ITS EAST. HOWEVER...RAIN COOLED AIR TO ITS NORTH
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING...AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. EITHER WAY...OVERRUNNING WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO FALL OVER NERN MO INTO IL...AND AS
RADAR COVERAGE FILLS IN ACROSS SWRN MO LATER AS FFG LOWERS FROM
ITS PRESENT VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR.

OTTO


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   40039228 40879193 41729116 41648971 41478872 41158843
            40718876 40078937 39139044 38629133 38469201 38559251
            39039256 40039228