Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0370
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051940Z - 060140Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop and generally grow upscale over the next few
hours. Given relatively moist antecedent conditions and heavy
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour, some isolated areas of flash
flooding will be possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows a shortwave
trough traversing the OH Valley which is interacting with a
quasi-stationary front draped southwest to northeast from southern
IN through northern OH, far northwest PA and southwest NY. A wave
of low pressure is noted in surface observations near the IN/OH
border, and a combination of relatively stronger low-level
moisture convergence ahead of this wave along with modest DPVA
should favor a general increase in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours.

A moist and unstable boundary layer will support a favorable
thermodynamic environment for convection to attain at least some
loose organization with multi-cell convective clusters likely to
evolve. MLCAPE values are locally near 1000+ J/kg with PWs of 1.2
to 1.5 inches in place, with the better moisture overall situated
over western PA, central and southern OH and down into northern KY
where the nose of weak low-level southwest flow is noted ahead of
the aforementioned front.

Rainfall rates should be capable of reaching up to as much as 1.5
inches/hour based on the latest hires model guidance including the
12Z HREF guidance and the 06Z REFS. Some briefing training of
cells ahead of the aforementioned wave of low pressure will
support the potential for some localized 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
totals going through this evening. The antecedent conditions are
relatively moist, and with some urban sensitivities, the potential
will exist for isolated areas of flash flooding over the next
several hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42977618 42487514 41667559 40907790 39867899
            39278045 39048250 39208377 39688514 40438558
            41168451 41158203 41998019 42757809