Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0411
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1252 AM EDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Kansas, southern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090451Z - 091051Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains likely across the discussion area
through 11Z.  Significant impacts are expected especially across
southwestern Missouri.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area.  The areas of potential foci for heavy rainfall risk exist
with 1) a rapidly evolving MCS from near Dodge City
east-northeastward to Salina, where torrential rain and occasional
cell mergers/slow movement have resulted in 2 inch/hr estimates at
times and 2) with lingering convection across southwestern
Missouri near Springfield and just north of Joplin.  The
pre-convective environment is plenty moist/unstable, with both
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.7-2.1 inch PW values focused along and
just north of a stationary boundary near the KS/OK border. 
Low-level convergence (on the northern extent of 25-40 kt
south-southwesterly 850mb flow over Oklahoma) continues to provide
a focus for convective development - especially from near Salina
to near Springfield, MO - out ahead of an intense southwestern KS
MCS.

The overall regime for ascent/convection from central KS to
southwestern Missouri is not expected to change much over the next
6 hours.  Areas of heavier rainfall are expected to train in these
areas and produce potential for multiple hours of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates.  Furthermore, ground conditions are sensitive in
southwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas where 1-3 inch/hr totals were
observed yesterday night and additional 2-3 inch amounts were
observed in southwestern Missouri today.  These areas could
experience significant flash flooding, with long-duration
thunderstorm risk potentially resulting in an additional 3-6 inch
totals before the southwestern KS MCS moves through later tonight.

Farther upstream, the southwestern KS MCS was maturing and surging
to the east due to upscale growth and increasing mid-level
organization.  Areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates were
observed/estimated along portions of the MCS that have resulted in
flash flood impacts in/near Garden City.  More isolated flash
flood potential exists due to the forward-propagating nature of
the storms, although local cell mergers and training could
continue to promote 2 inch/hr rain rates at times.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38889631 38129252 36879116 36359127 36289212
            36539413 37069733 37039989 37550063 38280020
            38809878