Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1258 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Corrected for TYPO IN GRAPHIC

Areas affected...Northeastern IN...Northern OH...Northwestern PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261540Z - 262040Z

SUMMARY...Training storms are expected to continue to develop over
the region, with the threat for locally heavy amounts and possible
flash flooding increasing during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis shows a shortwave trough associated with
overnight convection moving east from the mid Mississippi Valley
as a northern stream trough and its associated cold front move
across the upper Great Lakes.  Ahead of these features, low level
west-southwesterly flow is supporting an increase in moisture in
an area of enhanced ascent generated in part by right-entrance
region upper jet dynamics.  Radar shows convection beginning to
train from northeastern Indiana into northwestern Ohio, with rates
increasing along with an uptick in instability.  Guidance is
showing a good signal for sustained moisture advection (PWs
increasing to around 1.75 inches) and ascent across northern Ohio,
expanding into northwest Pennsylvania -- supporting training
storms and the threat for locally heavy amounts ahead of the
front.  HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate that localized
amounts of 2 inches or more are likely over the next few hours. 
Localized rainfall amounts exceeding 3-hour flash flood guidance
values can be expected, especially over northeastern Ohio into
northwestern Pennsylvania.

Pereira

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...DTX...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42098017 42077934 41637930 41108099 40978304
            41108458 41248618 41738395 41498242 41608167