MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0534
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY...CT...MA..SRN VT...SRN NH...SRN ME 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300800Z - 301400Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS WITH LOCAL
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.


DISCUSSION...SFC/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLC
REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THE HEAVIER RAINS AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ARE CONTINUING TO OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF MID/UPR S/WV AXIS LIFTING NEWD ACRS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHERN NJ AS OF 08Z.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL LOW WAS STILL EVIDENT
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL PA AS 0F 07Z WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDING
NEWD INTO CT. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW WAS EVIDENT OFF THE COAST
PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF STG MSTR FLUX INTO PARTS OF SRN NY
NEWD INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.  OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE STG 85H TO 75H MSTR FLUX ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SRN MAINE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.  

THE 00Z WRF ARW HAS SHOWN BEST FIT TO RAINFALL TRENDS THUS FAR AND
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 3" PLUS
RAINS IN 6 HRS...DESPITE LITTLE OR NO CAPE.  THESE AMOUNTS ON TOP
OF WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION COULD
POSSIBLY LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE STEEPER
TERRAIN.  

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   45216865 44956788 44246858 43237011 42197200 
            41787266 41527288 41157341 41107387 41387424 
            41887424 43067368 43967142