Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kansas into central and south-central
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290800Z - 291400Z

Summary...A few areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
expected to expand in coverage across the discussion area.  Areas
of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected through at least 14Z/9a CDT
this morning, which could prompt flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered convection was developing along an axis
from east-central Kansas (near Emporia eastward to near Sedalia
and southeastward to the MO/AR border near Cherokee Village.  The
storms were being forced by ascent on the nose of stronger 850mb
flow located across Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, with speed
convergence providing lift amid a marginally unstable (1000 J/kg
MUCAPE) but plenty moist (1.5+ inch PW) environment.  The storms
are developing amid weak steering flow aloft, resulting in slow
movement and redevelopment within the axis of best low-level
convergence.  The slow movement was already enabling spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to materialize in central Missouri, which may
result in isolated excessive runoff in the near term despite
values falling short of hourly FFG.

Models/observations suggest that persistent low-level convergence
across the discussion area will continue to promote redevelopment
and expansion of convection through the early morning hours.  An
attendant increase in rainfall rates (into the 1.5 inch/hr range
in spots) is also expected.  These rain rates will threaten FFG
thresholds and promote a risk of flash flooding especially in
urban and sensitive locales through 14Z/9a CDT this morning.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   39749527 39699367 38599109 37209056 36509081
            36309167 36869256 38309426 38429556 39089600