Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on X
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0599 (2024)
(Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0599

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0599
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...Northern AR...Southeast MO...Northwest
TN...Western KY...Southern IL...Southwest IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090905Z - 091505Z

SUMMARY...Tropical Depression Beryl continues to weaken and lift
off to the north-northeast, but will continue to focus additional
areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding heading through the
morning hours.

DISCUSSION...The very early morning GOES-E GeoColor satellite
imagery shows a generally exposed low-level center that makes up a
weakening T.D. Beryl over far southwest AR just to the
north-northeast of Texarkana. Much of the remaining convection is
situated well off to the northeast of the center in a very
asymmetric manner that is characteristic of a system that is
increasingly becoming extratropical.

Regardless, there continues to be heavy rainfall and flash
flooding concerns, as broken bands of strong convection with heavy
rainfall rates stretch out from central AR northeastward through
northwest TN, western KY and southeast MO. Gradually this activity
will impact more areas of the Lower OH Valley going through the
morning hours including southern IL and southwest IN as Beryl
advances steadily off to the northeast.

MUCAPE values pooled around the eastern flank of Beryl's
circulation center remain on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, with a
30 to 40 kt southerly low-level jet overrunning a warm front that
is gradually lifting north through the Mid-South ahead of Beryl's
track. This is resulting in a well-defined southwest to northeast
axis of focused isentropic ascent with moderate to heavy rain and
embedded stronger elevated convective elements. Some of these
convective elements though are focused and show organization given
the level of effective bulk shear (40 to 50+ kts) and updraft
helicity that remains in place.

The 06Z HREF and recent runs of the HRRR guidance suggest
additional heavy rains continuing well through the morning hours
ahead of Beryl, with the dominant focus along and increasingly to
the left of the storm track as Beryl continues to progress to a
baroclinic/extratropical system.

Some rainfall rates with the persistent areas of stronger elevated
convection will continue to be on the order of 1 to 2 inches/hour.
Additional storm totals more regionally going through late this
morning should reach as high as 3 to 5 inches. These additional
rains will continue to favor areas of flash flooding, including
locally more significant urban impacts.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...
SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38608793 38248689 37718648 36928667 36378771
            35878915 35449037 34779178 34589295 34969380
            35499395 36089368 36739316 37369232 38049095
            38548937
Download in GIS format:    Shapefile  | KML



Last Updated: 505 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 10-Jan-2025 11:25:04 GMT