Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun May 03 2026 - 12Z Mon May 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...

Just enough of a signal in the 03/00Z CAMS to maintain the Marginal
Risk area. The focus will be over the urban southeast coast as a
front advances into a region of deeper moisture and where CAPE
tends to be under 1000 J per kg. The 03/00Z HREF does depict a
low-end neighborhood probability of FFGs being exceeded over the
southern tip of the Florida peninsula in the 03/21Z to 04/00Z
period but the stronger signals in the guidance is for heavier
rainfall to be hugging the coast or remaining just off-shore. It
was noted that over the past couple of days...numerical models have
been cutting back the amount of moisture in the lowest layers which


Bann

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt