Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Nov 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON STATE IN THE AREA OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS WELL AS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

North-Central Texas

The trough responsible for heavy rainfall in California yesterday
will dig into the Central/Southern Plains today. Shallow East
Pacifc and Gulf moisture will converge along the leading edge of a
digging upper trough. Thunderstorms will initiate over the
Panhandle and propagate east/southeast through north-central Texas
later tonight. A marginal risk (at least 5% chance) of excessive
rainfall is in effect for the aforementioned area and is consistent
with first guess fields. Soil moisture is fairly dry so some of the
rainfall that occurs will be beneficial, but there's a small
chance for storms to overperform the forecast. 1-2" exceedance
probabilities are over 5% for the highlighted area as well.

Coastal Texas

A southern stream disturbance, responsible for this morning's
rainfall/storms over portions of west Texas, will swing through
southern Texas today. This mid-level vort max will be the impetus
for convection along the central/southern Texas coastline this
afternoon and continuing through the evening. These storms will
access the same moisture (1-2" PWATs) and instablity (200-400 J/Kg
MUCAPE) plume feeding the north-central storms. The potential for
repeating rounds of storms along the coast is supported by multiple
CAM guidance showing some 2-4" QPF maxes along the coast. RRFS
2-5" exceedance probabilities are over 5%+ for the highlighted
area.

Pacific Northwest

A low pressure system will focus storms along its attendant cold
front as it arrives over the Pacific Northwest tonight. Some
relatively modest instablility (100-250 J/Kg MUCAPE) will work its
way into the region along with moissture some 0.5-1.5 Precipitable
water values.

Kebede


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Nov 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON STATE IN THE AREA OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS WELL AS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

North-Central Texas

The trough responsible for heavy rainfall in California yesterday
will dig into the Central/Southern Plains today. Shallow East
Pacifc and Gulf moisture will converge along the leading edge of a
digging upper trough. Thunderstorms will initiate over the
Panhandle and propagate east/southeast through north-central Texas
later tonight. A marginal risk (at least 5% chance) of excessive
rainfall is in effect for the aforementioned area and is consistent
with first guess fields. Soil moisture is fairly dry so some of the
rainfall that occurs will be beneficial, but there's a small
chance for storms to overperform the forecast. 1-2" exceedance
probabilities are over 5% for the highlighted area as well.

Coastal Texas

A southern stream disturbance, responsible for this morning's
rainfall/storms over portions of west Texas, will swing through
southern Texas today. This mid-level vort max will be the impetus
for convection along the central/southern Texas coastline this
afternoon and continuing through the evening. These storms will
access the same moisture (1-2" PWATs) and instablity (200-400 J/Kg
MUCAPE) plume feeding the north-central storms. The potential for
repeating rounds of storms along the coast is supported by multiple
CAM guidance showing some 2-4" QPF maxes along the coast. RRFS
2-5" exceedance probabilities are over 5%+ for the highlighted
area.

Pacific Northwest

A low pressure system will focus storms along its attendant cold
front as it arrives over the Pacific Northwest tonight. Some
relatively modest instablility (100-250 J/Kg MUCAPE) will work its
way into the region along with moissture some 0.5-1.5 Precipitable
water values.

Kebede


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt