Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
840 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

2200Z Update:

We expanded the Plains Marginal Risk area a bit farther west and
south to include more of central OK, the OK-TX Panhandles, and a
portion of northeast NM. This was based partially on current
observational and mesoanalysis trends, with deep-layer CAPEs late
this afternoon now 2000-2500 J/Kg across much of this area,
including ~2,000 J/Kg across parts of the TX Panhandle into
northeast NM. Meanwhile, the 18Z HREF QPF exceedance probabilities
(probabilities of 1-2 in/hr rates and at least 3"/3hr) also
somewhat dictated the areal-extent of the Marginal Risk area, along
with the latest CSU ERO UFVS-verified first guess field.

Hurley

Previous Discussion:

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward
through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations
advect northward across the region as the low level flow
strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward into
this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support areas
of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy rains
and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities show
40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall across
these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to be less
than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of 3-4+
inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for
excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Wilder/Campbell


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt