Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Oct 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Oct 24 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO, SOUTHERN COLORADO, AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...01Z Update...

Maintained a Slight Risk over portions of northwestern New Mexico.
While the hi-res model consensus indicates a diminishing threat,
some localized moderate amounts may produce additional runoff
concerns in this highly-sensitive area.

Expect a greater threat for heavy amounts to focus farther east
into portions of northeastern New Mexico and adjacent southeastern
Colorado, where deep southerly flow will focus deeper moisture and
mid-level energy overnight. The Slight Risk was extended into
areas where both the HREF and REFS show high probabilities for
accumulations greater than an inch overnight.

A separate Slight Risk area was placed farther south, centering
over south-central New Mexico and Far West Texas. This area also
falls along the axis of deeper moisture and favorable forcing.
Storms developing along this axis this evening have already caused
isolated flash flooding concerns and both the HREF and REFS
indicate additional amounts over an inch are likely along this
axis, especially over south-central New Mexico.

The Marginal Risk that extended from central Montana through
southern Idaho was removed. Limited instability is expected to
keep rainfall rates and the threat for heavy amounts low through
the overnight.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt