Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jul 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Jul 05 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA & SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...Central Texas...
The mid-level remains of Barry saw significant rejuvenation from
the convective event on Friday morning and early afternoon, which
has ramped up the effective bulk shear available when compared to
this time last night. The combination of this mid- level
circulation, precipitable water values of 2-2.25" (+3 std dev above
normal), and areas of 2000+ J/kg of ML CAPE should lead to another
overnight maximum for the warm core circulation. The 18z HREF
isn't as emphatic with the signal for heavy rainfall, but the
environment continues to support hourly amounts to 3" with local
maximum of 6", assuming no long term backbuilding or training
occurs. The primary threat appears to be overnight during the usual
06z onward convective maximum for such a system with an upper
level high overhead. Shifted the 18z HREF footprint a little more
southward to better fit the southeast drift seen in water vapor
imagery with the mid-level circulation.


...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Moderate to heavy amounts associated with training storms are still
expected early on across northern MN before the whole convective
area becomes progressive to the southeast. The various risk areas
were pared back on their west and north sides to accommodate
convective progression thus far and the signal in the 18z HREF.
Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" remain possible where cell training
occurs this evening/tonight in northern MN.


...Western Florida...
Deep moisture pooling just east of a weak surface low offshore
Tampa and an upper low will continue to support an environment
conducive to heavy rainfall through the evening and overnight hours.
Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible where short, training
convective bands occur off the Gulf overnight.


...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies...
While most of the activity is expected fade after sunset,
convection is expected to hold on the longest across portions of
MT. Pared back the risk areas per convective progression thus far
and the signal in the 18z HREF.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt