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< Day 1 Outlook Valid Through 12Z Today Day 2 Outlook >
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0802 UTC Wed May 22, 2024
Valid: 12 UTC May 22, 2024 - 12 UTC May 23, 2024
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed May 22 2024 - 12Z Thu May 23 2024


The southern portion of the frontal boundary emanating from the
low moving from the Upper Mississippi Valley into southern Ontario
this morning will slow significantly from the Southern Plains into
the Lower Arkansas and Mid Mississippi Valley during the upcoming day
1 period, becoming aligned more parallel to the southwest flow
aloft. Additional convection likely to form in the axis of PW
values 2+ standard deviations above the mean as shortwave energy
moves east northeastward across the Southern Plains and along this
slowing frontal zone. There has been a significant southward shift
in nearly all of the models with the forecast axis of heaviest
precip along this front. The individual hi res runs and the HREF
mean are the farthest south now, with global models to the north of
the HREF mean, closer to the 18Z axis of the RRFS and 06Z May 21
axis of the RRFSMEAN. The 00Z EC is the farthest south global
model, closer to the hi res and HREF mean axis.  WPC has followed
the southward trend in our latest qpf and we will also trend
farther to the south with the Excessive Rainfall probabilities.
Training of cells parallel to the boundary is a concern for heavy
to locally excessive rainfall totals day 1, although confidence is
not great with placement given the spread and significant changes
run to run. With respect to the previous outlook for this period,
there has been approximately a 60-80 mile southward adjustment to
the marginal and slight risk areas, extending them farther south
into northeast Texas and northern Louisiana and reducing the risk
from the OH/MS river confluence into northern Arkansas.


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