Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

Texas coast...
An area of moisture convergence/frontogenesis has been the focus
of showers trying to stream into the Middle TX Coast off the Gulf
of Mexico. The 0.5"+ an hour rain amounts have been focused off the
coast, along the lines of the output from the 12z HREF guidance.
With time, the RAP shows the flow veering in this area, showing
less of a surface focus for the convection with time. The 12z HREF
is focusing whatever heavy rain threat that exists just offshore of
Port O'Connor, mostly during the 16-20z time frame, before fading.
Local totals to 3" are expected just offshore. Even if this
activity were to unexpectedly drift ashore, the heavy rainfall risk
appears too isolated and too limited for a Marginal Risk area, so
left the graphic area-free.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt