Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Nov 08 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025

01Z Update....
Recent MRMS data has shown some pockets of heavier rates (1-1.5
in/hr) over the past couple of hours, especially within a small
segment of training storms across Middle Tennessee. But overall,
storms have been progressive as expected - limiting the threat for
heavy accumulations and flash flooding. Even within the pockets of
heavier rates, accumulations have remained well below FFGs. As
these storms continue to move east, expect rates to come down over
the next few hours as they move into a less unstable airmass over
eastern Kentucky and Tennessee.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
Thunderstorms are expected to move into
Kentucky and Tennessee ahead of a cold front later today into early
tonight. Precipitable water values are forecast to be modestly
anomalous for early November (+1 to +2 standardized anomalies) and
forecast MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg combined with sufficient vertical
shear will allow for a few organized cells with stronger rainfall
intensities.

Some brief training from WSW to ENE will be possible which could
produce 1 to locally 2+ inches of rain in a short period of time,
however, the front should remain progressive enough to limit the
potential for flash flooding. The potential for exceeding some of
the lower flash flood guidance over central/eastern
Kentucky/Tennessee (1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours) is low enough to
state that the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance is less than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt