Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu May 01 2025 - 12Z Thu May 01 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

01Z Update...

Updates to the previous ERO were based upon recent runs of the
HRRR, the 18Z HREF, and current observation trends. 

The greatest heavy rain and flash flooding concerns through the
evening hours focus along the southwest flank of ongoing
convection and a coincident slow-moving boundary from the ArkLaTex
southeastward back through the Waco area. Current radar shows
storms training along the boundary, with rainfall rates of 1-2
inches/hour within some of the stronger cells. Cell-training and
heavy rainfall will remain a concern for at least the next few
hours as deep layer flow is aligned with the boundary. The Moderate
Risk was adjusted to align with the training convection, which
agrees well with the higher HREF neighborhood probabilities for
additional accumulations of 3 inches or more during the
evening/overnight.

Farther to the north across Arkansas, the threat for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding is diminishing where the convective
line has become more progressive.

Areas back to the north and west, where the rainfall has ended,
were removed from the outlook.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt