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Day 2 Outlook >
 
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0006 UTC Fri Mar 29, 2024
Valid: 01 UTC Mar 29, 2024 - 12 UTC Mar 29, 2024
 
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Mar 29 2024 - 12Z Fri Mar 29 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST U.S....

...New England...
A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall remains over portions of New
England into early Friday morning. The expectation is that neither
rainfall rates nor rainfall amounts will be blockbuster in
magnitude and that rain in most places would be handled under most
circumstances (as suggested by HREF neighborhood probabilities
showing very low chances of reaching 1-/3-/6-hour Flash Flood
Guidance), or even 0.5" in an hour.  However, the amount of water
added by melting and compaction of the snowpack may be enough for
more than isolated problems with runoff in areas of poor drainage.
The risk areas remain in place with no changes, which helps to
support messaging related to New England's flood watches.

Roth/Bann


08Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion...

...New England...
As the previously noted low develops and approaches from the south,
a slow-moving front will provide the focus for deepening moisture
and soaking rains across much of coastal New England. Overall,
models have remained consistent in showing a long stripe of 1-3
inch amounts extending from eastern Connecticut to DownEast Maine.
Rainfall rates will be limited by a lack instability, likely
topping out near 0.25 inch/hour. However, given the recent rainfall
and saturated soils, there remain some runoff concerns, promoting
the continuation of a Marginal Risk.

Pereira


 

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