Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 30 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...


...Southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
01Z Update...

Continued the southern adjustment, especially on the northern edge,
of the outlook areas extending from western Texas northeastward
across Oklahoma. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as the 18Z HREF,
indicate multiple convective rounds training northeastward across
the region, producing several inches of rain, with numerous flash
floods likely across portions of the region. The latest guidance
shows the greatest threat extending from Northwest Texas across the
Wichita Falls area into southwestern and south-central Oklahoma --
brushing the southern extent of the OKC metro. Deterministic runs
of the HRRR show accumulations of 7+ inches, while the HREF shows
high neighborhood probabilities for accumulations of 5 inches or
more through the overnight across this region. The Slight and
Moderate Risk areas were shifted a bit farther south across the
southern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, where limited
instability in the most recent analysis supports guidance
indicating a lesser threat for heavy rainfall rates and flash
flooding.

Further to the east, pulled the Marginal and the Slight Risk areas
back west of the Mississippi. Relatively drier and more stable air
is expected to persist until showers and storms now developing
back to the southwest spread into the region late in the period,
with the general model consensus showing relatively lighter amounts
and a lesser flooding threat.

...Ohio Valley to the Central Appalachians...
01Z Update...

In addition to brief heavy downpours across sensitive areas, some
training along the southwest flank of the storms currently moving
across the region may raise the threat for locally heavy rains and
flash flooding. But overall, storms are expected to move
progressively across the area, limiting the potential for
widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt