PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 15 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007        

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ...  FLOODING THREAT PERSISTS AS HEAVY RAINBANDS SPIRAL
AROUND CENTER...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5
WEST...ABOUT 40 MILES...40 KILOMETERS...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MIDLAND
TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH...8 KT...14
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE CENTER OF ERIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 300 AM CDT
SATURDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU)         9.61
SENS RD                          9.25
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST       8.31
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING   7.52
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA                7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         4.80
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD             3.62

BOERNE 5.6 NE                   10.23 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT    9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE           9.62 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW	         8.26 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW              8.07 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE                    7.94 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N                7.73 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE                 7.46 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO            7.46
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY 
6 WSW BOERNE                     5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW                 5.70 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02
ABILENE MUNI ARPT                4.80
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS                3.93
MASON				 3.90 
PALACIOS MUNI ARPT               3.86
HASKELL				 3.38
RANDOLPH AFB/UNIVERSAL CITY      3.27


ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES NEAR THE PATH OF THE
DEPRESSION. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM...LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...32.6 NORTH...AND 101.5
WEST...NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 8 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
KONG

FORECAST POSITIONS


INITIAL    18/0300Z 32.6N 101.5W
12HR VT    18/1800Z 33.5N 101.4W
24HR VT    19/0000Z 34.5N 100.0W