PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 19 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007        

...T.D. ERIN IS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ERIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDESTORM
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST...ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA..

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS AROUND 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AROUND...AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERIN.  THE MOISTURE FROM ERIN HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
STATES...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MANY COUNTIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 AM CDT
SUNDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU)        11.02 PAST 3 DAYS
SENS RD                          9.33 PAST 3 DAYS
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST       8.50 PAST 3 DAYS
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING   8.43 PAST 3 DAYS
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA                7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         5.51

BOERNE 5.6 NE                   10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT    9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE           9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
OZONA 22 SE			 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW	         8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW              8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE                    7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N                7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE                 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO            7.46
HONDO 8.7E			 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
EL DORADO			 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
WINTERS				 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY
ROBERT LEE			 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS                5.96 
6 WSW BOERNE                     5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW                 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
ABILENE MUNI ARPT                5.56
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02


...OKLAHOMA...

FORT COBB                        9.00
EL RENO                          7.00
MINCO                            6.00
APACHE                           5.00
WATONGA                          4.20

...MINNESOTA...

ROCHESTER                        4.89


...WISCONSIN...

MADISON                          4.04
LA CROSSE                        4.00



ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO MISSOURI...WHILE ALSO
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY STATES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1
WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN
THUNDERSTORMS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
KONG/ECKERT

FORECAST POSITIONS


INITIAL    19/0300Z 35.7N  98.1W
12HR VT    19/1200Z 36.0N  98.3W
24HR VT    20/0000Z 37.4N  97.5W