PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 20 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007        

...IMPRESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. ERIN SLIDING EAST OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO CONTINUE
FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS.

WHILE ERIN HAD DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE RADAR SIGNATURE EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL INLAND...THE LASTEST RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS BEEN WEAKENING. HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AROUND...AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF ERIN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. 

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST...ABOUT 12 MILES...19
KILOMETERS...WEST NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA...OR ABOUT 70
MILES...113 KILOMETERS...WEST SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT 15
MPH...13 KT...24 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...30 KT...56 KM/HR...WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND 1005 MB...29.68
INCHES.


SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 900 AM CDT
SUNDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU)        11.02 3 DAY TOTAL
SENS RD                          9.33 3 DAY TOTAL
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST       8.50 3 DAY TOTAL
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING   8.43 3 DAY TOTAL
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA                7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         5.51

BOERNE 5.6 NE                   10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT    9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE           9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
OZONA 22 SE			 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW	         8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW              8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE                    7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N                7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE                 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO            7.46
HONDO 8.7E			 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
EL DORADO			 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
WINTERS				 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY
ROBERT LEE			 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS                5.96 
6 WSW BOERNE                     5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW                 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
ABILENE MUNI ARPT                5.56
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02


...OKLAHOMA...

GEARY 9.8 WNW                   11.03 
FORT COBB                        9.04 
EL RENO                          8.33 
NORMAN 2.3 NNE                   8.12 
MINCO                            6.43 
MUSTANG 2.1 WNW                  6.38 
WALTERS                          6.15 
EDMOND 1.6 W                     5.46 
OKLAHOMA CITY                    5.36 
APACHE                           5.30 
WATONGA                          4.60 


ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. 

THE MOISTURE FROM ERIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
STORM AND INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE MIDWEST EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...ENHANCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY STATES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0
WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN
THUNDERSTORMS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
OTTO

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL    19/1500Z 35.8N  97.0W
12HR VT    20/0000Z 37.5N  93.5W
24HR VT    20/1200Z 39.0N  90.5W