TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092017
400 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...S OF MONROE LOUISIANA.
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 92
WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE HARVEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION ON FRIDAY, AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS, NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI,
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE, WESTERN TO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WESTERN
TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. THESE RAINS WILL ENHANCE THE
FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM FAR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WESTERN TENNESSEE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
IN AND AROUND HOUSTON, BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR, AND EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY
MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND INCREASED RIVER AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF
YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.
...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4
AM CDT
...ALABAMA...
GASQUE 8.00
BONSECOUR 7.91
GRAND BAY 10.5 NE 6.81
FOLEY 7.4 SW 6.44
ELBERTA 6.31
ORANGE BEACH 6.03
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 6.01
MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT 5.83
MOBILE/BATES FIELD 5.83
FAIRHOPE 5.77
GULF SHORES 5.60
SUMMERDALE 4.73
MONTROSE 4.52
DAPHNE 0.4 SW 4.42
FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL 3W 4.35
SONNY CALLAHAN ARPT 4.32
...ARKANSAS...
MAMMOTH SPRINGS 2 SSE 6.42
...FLORIDA...
MILTON 6.92
PENSACOLA REGIONAL AIRPORT 6.86
UNIVERSITY WEST 2.0 WNW 6.36
PACE 5.35
GULF BREEZE 5.28
ORIOLE BEACH 2 WSW 3.01
CRESTVIEW/BOB SIKES 2.91
APALACHICOLA MUNI ARPT 1.83
...LOUISIANA...
BAYOU CONWAY 22.25
BAYOU TORO NEAR TORO 20.62
KENNER GULLY AT MARK LEBLEU 18.23
CALCASIEU RVR AT OLD TOWN BA 18.15
W-14 AT JOE SPEARS RD 17.85
W-6 AT WARD LINE ROAD 17.24
MOSS BLUFF 16.70
BELFIELD DITCH AT BELFIELD ROAD 16.37
IOWA 0.9 ESE 16.36
GOLDSMITH CANAL AT GOOS RD 16.02
BAYOU ARSENE AT HECKER ROAD 15.84
GOLDSMITH CANAL AT HWY 171 15.74
LAKE CHARLES 11.5 SSW 15.41
RAGLEY 5.0 SE 15.18
EB L-14 AT IOWA BASEBALL FIELD 14.85
INDIAN BAYOU AT COFFEY ROAD 14.10
TOPSY 4 NNW 14.08
LACASSINE BAYOU AT LORRAIN BRIDGE 13.04
ZAVALLA 2 ENE 12.87
SULPHUR 2.2 E 12.54
BON WIER 2 ENE 12.44
HACKBERRY 5 SSE 12.33
CONTRABAND BAYOU AT 18TH STREET 12.28
WELSH 0.7 W 12.26
W-4 AT NELSON ROAD 12.12
GILLIS 4 WSW 12.11
FORT POLK 11.96
BUXTON CREEK AT DOUGLAS ROAD 11.21
CHOUPIQUE BAYOU AT HWY 90 11.02
LACASSINE NATIONAL 2 ENE 10.55
BAYOU DINDE AT PICARD ST 9.76
LEBLEU SETTLEMENT 2 WNW 9.64
FORKED ISLAND 5 ENE 9.37
BUNDICK CREEK NEAR DE RIDDER 9.26
PECAN ISLAND 2 E 9.14
LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT 9.08
NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA 8.92
VERNON - FTS 8.77
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 7.14
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 5.88
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 5.33
ENGLAND AFB/ALEXANDRIA 4.84
SLIDELL AIRPORT 3.82
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 3.17
...MISSISSIPPI...
GAUTIER 8.27
SANDHILL CRANE - FTS 7.90
GRAND BAY 6.06
OCEAN SPRINGS 3.6 ESE 4.61
MOSS POINT - TRENT LOTT INTL ARPT 4.55
PASCAGOULA 4.54
PEARLINGTON 4.4 N 3.99
JOURDAN RIVER NEAR KILN 3.35
TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA 3.15
TYLERTOWN 9 WNW 3.08
NATCHEZ/HARDY 2.91
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 2.55
GULFPORT-BILOXI 2.40
...TEXAS...
CEDAR BAYOU AT FM 1942 51.88
CLEAR CREEK AT I-45 49.40
DAYTON 0.2 E 49.23
MARYS CREEK AT WINDING ROAD 49.20
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 47.35
SANTA FE 0.7 S 46.70
PASADENA 4.4 WNW 45.74
HORSEPEN CREEK AT BAY AREA BLVD 45.60
SOUTH HOUSTON 4.0 SSW 44.91
BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS BLVD 44.80
BERRY BAYOU AT NEVADA 44.44
FRIENDSWOOD 2.5 NNE 44.05
LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT BURKE RD 43.52
HOUSTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 43.38
LEAGUE CITY 2.7 NE 43.32
WEBSTER 0.4 NW 43.32
LNVA CHEEK CANAL AT DITCH 407 43.11
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST 42.32
ARMAND BAYOU AT GENOA-RED BLUFF RD 42.16
TURKEY CREEK AT FM 1959 42.12
BOONDOCKS RD AT TAYLORS BA 41.86
ARMAND BAYOU AT PASADENA LAKE 41.20
TAYLOR LAKE AT NASA ROAD 1 40.44
SH 124 AT HILLEBRANDT BAYOU 38.18
MAHAW BAYOU AT ENGLIN RD 37.75
JACINTO CITY 37.60
HUNTING BAYOU AT LOOP 610 EAST 37.00
TELEPSEN 36.60
MAHAW BAYOU AT BRUSH ISLAND ROAD 36.53
FIRST COLONY 4 WSW 36.34
BEAMER DITCH HUGHES RD 36.32
LA PORTE 1 N 36.24
BAYTOWN 2 NW 35.64
MOUNT HOUSTON 35.60
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD 33.37
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 31.26
KATY 6 NE 31.23
HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY 27.88
HOUSTON/D.W. HOOKS 27.01
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 22.84
COLLEGE STATION 2 SSW 19.64
VICTORIA 3.8 NW 15.60
AUSTIN 4 SSE 10.28
AUSTIN/MUELLER MUNI ARPT 10.07
CORPUS CHRISTI 3.6 S 6.23
...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...
...TEXAS...
PORT ARANSAS 2 ENE 132
COPANO VILLAGE 1 ENE 125
LAMAR 2 SSW 110
ROCKPORT 1 S 108
TAFT 5 NNE 90
MAGNOLIA BEACH 8 ESE 79
EDNA 73
FLOUR BLUFF 4 ESE 72
ARANSAS PASS 7 SE 71
CLEAR LAKE SHORES 1 WSW 71
BRAZOS 451 70
PALACIOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 69
CORPUS CHRISTI NAS 5 SE 65
GANADO 7 S 64
LA WARD 64
BAYOU VISTA 13 E 61
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 58
QUINTANA 1 NE 58
SUGAR LAND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 58
JONES CREEK 9 SW 55
LA MARQUE 2 E 55
FREEPORT 1 ESE 54
SAN LEON 19 E 54
MISSOURI CITY 1 SE 53
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 53
WEBSTER 53
BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52
GONZALES AIRPORT 52
NASSAU BAY 52
TEXAS CITY 4 ENE 52
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
FORECASTER SANTORELLI
FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 31/0900Z 32.3N 92W
12HR VT 31/1800Z 33.5N 90.8W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 01/0600Z 35.1N 88.6W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 01/1800Z 36.3N 86.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 02/0600Z 37.5N 85.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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