TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092017
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2017
...HARVEY BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS HEAVY RAIN
SPREADS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...SEVERE FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...35.7N 87.2W
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NNE OF MUSCLE SHOALS RGNL ALABAMA
ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SW OF NASHVILLE METRO TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND INTO MUCH OF
KENTUCKY
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.2
WEST. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HARVEY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW ORGANIZED TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HARVEY IN OHIO ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DEVELOP IT SLOWLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
-------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE
AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA,
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO WEST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE RAINS WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK
ACROSS THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE IN AND AROUND HOUSTON, BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR/ORANGE, AND
EASTWARD AROUND THE LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.
...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4
AM CDT
...ALABAMA...
GASQUE 8.00
BONSECOUR 7.91
GRAND BAY 10.5 NE 6.81
FOLEY 7.4 SW 6.44
ELBERTA 6.31
ORANGE BEACH 6.03
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 6.01
MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT 5.83
MOBILE/BATES FIELD 5.83
FAIRHOPE 5.77
GULF SHORES 5.60
SUMMERDALE 4.73
MONTROSE 4.52
DAPHNE 0.4 SW 4.42
FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL 3W 4.35
SONNY CALLAHAN ARPT 4.32
...ARKANSAS...
WATSON 9 N 9.96
LAKE POINSETT RAWS 6.63
MAMMOTH SPRINGS 2 SSE 6.42
LITTLE DIXIE 6.24
CANAL 43 N. NEAR DUMAS 6.03
HARRISBURG 4.33
STUTTGART MUNI ARPT 4.33
FELSENTHAL 7 NNW 3.21
CROSSETT 0.9 S 2.79
JONESBORO MUNI ARPT 2.01
...FLORIDA...
PENSACOLA REGIONAL AIRPORT 7.95
MILTON 7.33
UNIVERSITY WEST 2.0 WNW 6.36
CRESTVIEW - SIKES ARPT 5.63
PACE 5.35
GULF BREEZE 5.28
PANAMA CITY ARPT 4.03
...GEORGIA...
COLUMBUS METRO ARPT 2.04
ATLANTA RGNL ARPT - FALCON FIELD 1.70
...KENTUCKY...
PLANO 2 ENE 5.73
FRANKLIN 2 NE 5.58
AUBURN 6 WNW 4.39
PROVIDENCE 3 ENE 4.32
BOWLING GREEN 2 NW 4.23
RUSSELLVILLE 2 NNW 4.14
CORINTH 3 SW 4.06
...LOUISIANA...
BAYOU CONWAY 22.25
BAYOU TORO NEAR TORO 20.62
KENNER GULLY AT MARK LEBLEU 18.23
CALCASIEU RVR AT OLD TOWN BA 18.15
W-14 AT JOE SPEARS RD 17.85
W-6 AT WARD LINE ROAD 17.24
MOSS BLUFF 16.70
BELFIELD DITCH AT BELFIELD ROAD 16.37
IOWA 0.9 ESE 16.36
GOLDSMITH CANAL AT GOOS RD 16.02
BAYOU ARSENE AT HECKER ROAD 15.84
GOLDSMITH CANAL AT HWY 171 15.74
LAKE CHARLES 11.5 SSW 15.41
RAGLEY 5.0 SE 15.18
EB L-14 AT IOWA BASEBALL FIELD 14.85
INDIAN BAYOU AT COFFEY ROAD 14.10
TOPSY 4 NNW 14.08
LACASSINE BAYOU AT LORRAIN BRIDGE 13.04
ZAVALLA 2 ENE 12.87
SULPHUR 2.2 E 12.54
BON WIER 2 ENE 12.44
HACKBERRY 5 SSE 12.33
CONTRABAND BAYOU AT 18TH STREET 12.28
WELSH 0.7 W 12.26
W-4 AT NELSON ROAD 12.12
GILLIS 4 WSW 12.11
FORT POLK 11.96
BUXTON CREEK AT DOUGLAS ROAD 11.21
CHOUPIQUE BAYOU AT HWY 90 11.02
LACASSINE NATIONAL 2 ENE 10.55
BAYOU DINDE AT PICARD ST 9.76
LEBLEU SETTLEMENT 2 WNW 9.64
FORKED ISLAND 5 ENE 9.37
BUNDICK CREEK NEAR DE RIDDER 9.26
PECAN ISLAND 2 E 9.14
LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT 9.08
NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA 8.92
VERNON - FTS 8.77
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 7.14
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 5.88
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 5.33
ENGLAND AFB/ALEXANDRIA 4.84
SLIDELL AIRPORT 3.82
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 3.17
...MISSISSIPPI...
GAUTIER 8.27
SANDHILL CRANE - FTS 7.90
GRAND BAY 6.06
OCEAN SPRINGS 3.6 ESE 4.61
MOSS POINT - TRENT LOTT INTL ARPT 4.55
PASCAGOULA 4.54
PEARLINGTON 4.4 N 3.99
JOURDAN RIVER NEAR KILN 3.35
TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA 3.15
TYLERTOWN 9 WNW 3.08
NATCHEZ/HARDY 2.91
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 2.55
GULFPORT-BILOXI 2.40
...TENNESSEE...
MEMPHIS INTL ARPT 1.25
JACKSON MCKELLAR-SIPES RGNL ARPT 1.12
...TEXAS...
CEDAR BAYOU AT FM 1942 51.88
CLEAR CREEK AT I-45 49.40
DAYTON 0.2 E 49.23
MARYS CREEK AT WINDING ROAD 49.20
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 47.35
SANTA FE 0.7 S 46.70
PASADENA 4.4 WNW 45.74
HORSEPEN CREEK AT BAY AREA BLVD 45.60
SOUTH HOUSTON 4.0 SSW 44.91
BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS BLVD 44.80
BERRY BAYOU AT NEVADA 44.44
FRIENDSWOOD 2.5 NNE 44.05
LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT BURKE RD 43.52
HOUSTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 43.38
LEAGUE CITY 2.7 NE 43.32
WEBSTER 0.4 NW 43.32
LNVA CHEEK CANAL AT DITCH 407 43.11
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST 42.32
ARMAND BAYOU AT GENOA-RED BLUFF RD 42.16
TURKEY CREEK AT FM 1959 42.12
BOONDOCKS RD AT TAYLORS BA 41.86
ARMAND BAYOU AT PASADENA LAKE 41.20
TAYLOR LAKE AT NASA ROAD 1 40.44
SH 124 AT HILLEBRANDT BAYOU 38.18
MAHAW BAYOU AT ENGLIN RD 37.75
JACINTO CITY 37.60
HUNTING BAYOU AT LOOP 610 EAST 37.00
TELEPSEN 36.60
MAHAW BAYOU AT BRUSH ISLAND ROAD 36.53
FIRST COLONY 4 WSW 36.34
BEAMER DITCH HUGHES RD 36.32
LA PORTE 1 N 36.24
BAYTOWN 2 NW 35.64
MOUNT HOUSTON 35.60
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD 33.37
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 31.26
KATY 6 NE 31.23
HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY 27.88
HOUSTON/D.W. HOOKS 27.01
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 22.84
COLLEGE STATION 2 SSW 19.64
VICTORIA 3.8 NW 15.60
AUSTIN 4 SSE 10.28
AUSTIN/MUELLER MUNI ARPT 10.07
CORPUS CHRISTI 3.6 S 6.23
...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...
...TEXAS...
PORT ARANSAS 2 ENE 132
COPANO VILLAGE 1 ENE 125
LAMAR 2 SSW 110
ROCKPORT 1 S 108
TAFT 5 NNE 90
MAGNOLIA BEACH 8 ESE 79
EDNA 73
FLOUR BLUFF 4 ESE 72
ARANSAS PASS 7 SE 71
CLEAR LAKE SHORES 1 WSW 71
BRAZOS 451 70
PALACIOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 69
CORPUS CHRISTI NAS 5 SE 65
GANADO 7 S 64
LA WARD 64
BAYOU VISTA 13 E 61
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 58
QUINTANA 1 NE 58
SUGAR LAND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 58
JONES CREEK 9 SW 55
LA MARQUE 2 E 55
FREEPORT 1 ESE 54
SAN LEON 19 E 54
MISSOURI CITY 1 SE 53
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 53
WEBSTER 53
BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52
GONZALES AIRPORT 52
NASSAU BAY 52
TEXAS CITY 4 ENE 52
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
FORECASTER KONG
FORECAST POSITIONS
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INITIAL 01/0900Z 35.7N 87.2W
12HR VT 01/1800Z 36.1N 86.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 02/0600Z 37.5N 85.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 02/1800Z 39.1N 83.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 03/0600Z 42.0N 81.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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