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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1527Z Jun 28, 2016)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1127 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 01 2016 - 12Z TUE JUL 05 2016

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE OVERVIEW/PREFERENCES...

A RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE
ECMWF/GEFS MEANS SHOWING RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS.  THE 06Z GFS BECOMES MORE AN OUTLIER OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA BY DAY 7/TUESDAY AND THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN
BOTH SEEMINGLY FALLING MORE QUICKLY OUTSIDE THE MAIN ENSEMBLE
SPREAD BY DAYS 5 AND BEYOND/SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN REMAINS WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING THE MAIN
FEATURE IN THE EAST WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...WHILE A MODERATE MEAN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE LOSING AMPLITUDE AS SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAKE HEADWAY ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE US.

...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SEPARATES THE DRIER AIRMASS FROM HOT AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST.  COOLER AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 4/SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT SEPARATES DRIER AIR OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST FROM HUMID
AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IT IS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THAT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES ON DAYS 4 AND 5/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHERE
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED OUT AHEAD OF ANY
ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY THE ONE CROSSING THE MIDWEST
AND NORTHEAST ON DAYS 3 AND 4.  THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW
INDICATES THAT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY
SCATTERED.  MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BUT
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON ALL 5 DAYS.

KOCIN