Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 18 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models and ensembles offer reasonably similar mid-larger scale
pattern evolutions next week and a GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model blend
seems to offer a solid forecast base with good detail and
continuity valid for Tuesday/Wednesday. Forecast spread and
uncertainty with the main weather focusing systems gradually
increases through later next week, so the WPC product suite at
these time frames were primarily derived from best compatible
18 UTC GEFS/12 UTC ECMWF ensemble means along with best matching
12 UTC ECMWF guidance for added detail. This solution now also
seems reasonably in line with trends from latest 00 UTC guidance,
most machine learning models, the NBM and main hazards messaging.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

In the wake of early next week cooling/unsettling Northeast upper
trough exit, shearimg trough energy with an associated surface
system with spread a progressive swath with some moderate rainfall
eastward Tuesday into Wednesday from the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic. Well upstream, digging upper
troughing will meanwhile reach the West Coast to promote another
round of enhanced precipitation. Moisture feed across portions of
the West/Southwest to snowy Rockies elevations will be much weaker
than the system during the short range period. However, into mid-
later next week downstream system progession and lead moisture and
instability return flow genesis into wavy fronts over the central
to eastern U.S. and meso-scale features should lead to emergence
of a growing area of moderate to heavy rains and some strong
thunderstorms from the South-central U.S. eastward. Accordingly,
a WPC Day 5/Wednesday Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal threat
area was introduced for the southern Plains with the start of an
expanding mid-late week east-central U.S. heavy rainfall pattern.

Back West, yet another east Pacific system may offer enhanced
precipitation to the West Coast into Thursday/Friday with
associated closed low potential into the Southwest next Saturday.
Precipitation could be moderate or heavy at times to monitor.

Pre-frontal temperatures will be much warmer than average for much
of the south-central/southern U.S. next week to include some
record temperatures upwards to 10-20 degrees above normal. This
translates to highs commonly into the 80s, with some warming
shifting to the East late next week/weekend. Meanwhile, rounds of
troughing in California to the Southwest will lead to below average
highs hovering next week about 5-10+ degrees below climatology.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw