Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 18 2026


...Heat building across the West later this weekend into early
next week...

...Heavy rainfall and flooding threat across the southern Plains,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast...


...Overview...

An unseasonably amplified pattern will be in place across the
Continental U.S. for the latter half of the weekend into next week
as a broad upper trough consolidates over the central and eastern
U.S. early in the period before slowly moving east later on. A
frontal boundary ahead of the trough is forecast to gradually sink
south and east across the south-central to southeastern U.S.,
focusing moisture for rain and thunderstorms. Some rain could be
heavy and lead to flooding concerns. Upstream, upper ridging will
build across the West Coast through early next week, leading to hot
temperatures that will be well above average in the Pacific
Northwest. The amplified pattern then may become increasingly zonal
mid to late next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to have a solid handle on the evolution
of the large scale pattern through most of the medium range period,
featuring a West Coast ridge and a broad central to eastern U.S.
trough. This amplified pattern may turn more zonal by mid to late
week as incoming shortwave energies potentially flatten the ridge
while the trough lifts out. The smaller scale spatial and temporal
details of these shortwaves are still somewhat unclear by midweek
and beyond, but the general pattern late in the period certainly
doesn't look nearly as amplified as it does early on.

Due to the broad overall agreement between the deterministic
models, the WPC forecast continues to utilize a multi-model blend
of recent guidance for the early part of the fronts and pressures
forecast. By Day 6 and 7, more weighting (20 to 40 percent) was
placed on the EC and GEFS ensemble means to reduce individual model
differences.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A potent cold front is forecast to slowly move southeast across
the southern tier from late this weekend into next week, providing
a focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Ample moisture and
instability interacting with the generally west to east oriented
front will mean a flash flooding threat is possible with the
potential for training storms. The greatest threat will be focused
from the Ark-La-Tex toward central Mississippi on Sunday and then
slightly farther south from southeast Texas to Alabama by Monday as
the front progresses. Slight Risks are present in both the Day
4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday EROs-- see the new Day 4-5 ERO discussion
for more. Areas of heavy rain are likely to continue across the
Gulf Coast states on Tuesday and Wednesday as the front continues
to move slowly southward.

Elsewhere, rain and thunderstorms are also possible from the
Appalachians to the Eastern Seaboard Sunday into Monday along and
ahead of the northern part of the front. Meanwhile, the back end of
the front may produce some light to moderate rain over the Rockies
and Four Corners states into early next week. A secondary front
and shortwave energies could also bring some scattered showers and
storms to the north-central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes on
Monday and beyond.

Hot and humid conditions will persist from the southern Plains to
the Southeast on Sunday as a subtropical upper ridge will be in
place south of the upper trough. The Eastern Seaboard can expect
generally above normal temperatures Sunday as well, but moderated
from the intense heat in the short range period. Cooler than
average temperatures are likely underneath the upper trough and
behind the cold front in the north-central U.S., spreading into the
South and East as the week progresses while moderating. Meanwhile,
the West will be rather warm under the upper ridge. The Desert
Southwest can expect temperatures well into the 100s and perhaps
over 110 into much of next week, with warmer than average
temperatures extending into the central Great Basin. Above average
temperatures should also be present in the Pacific Northwest early
next week. Daily record highs could be broken as temperatures reach
the 90s to perhaps 100 in the Willamette Valley and 80s farther
north toward Seattle. Widespread Moderate to scattered Major
HeatRisk is forecast for much of the West. Temperatures should
gradually moderate in the Pacific Northwest, but above normal
conditions will push east across the Intermountain West and reach
the Plains by midweek.


Tate/Miller


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw