Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026


...Widespread rain/snow for the West and heavy snow potential from
the Upper Midwest to New England...


...General Overview...

There will be a couple of organized low pressure systems that will
affect the central portions of the country for the middle to end of
the week, with the first low over the Upper Midwest that weakens
going into Thursday, and a new surface low develops over eastern
Colorado and emerges over the Midwest and then the Great Lakes to
close out the week. Out West, a new low pressure approaches the
Pacific Northwest going into next weekend with renewed prospects
for rain and mountain snow from northern California and into the
Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, ongoing precipitation across much of
the West should abate and decrease in coverage going into the end
of the week, and widespread rain is likely from the Ohio Valley to
the major cities of the Northeast, and heavy snow across northern
New England and the northern Great Lakes.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite is in above average agreement on the
synoptic scale pattern across the Continental U.S. through
Thursday, with a general deterministic model blend working well as
a starting point for fronts and pressures. By Friday, the ECMWF
becomes stronger with the low over western Wisconsin, whereas the
CMC/GFS/GEFS is a little weaker and over Michigan. There has been
a trend for heavier QPF across portions of Upstate New York into
New England for this forecast period compared to the previous
cycle, and a modest decrease in snowfall across the Rockies.The GFS
becomes more amplified over the Southeast with a upper trough by
late Sunday, whereas the CMC/ECMWF feature a broad trough axis. The
ensemble means were increased to about 50% by next Sunday.

The NBM appeared reasonable for most areas of the country, although
winds were increased across much of the northern Plains and
extending southwest to Colorado for the low pressure systems
through Thursday. There was also a reduction in precipitation
chances for eastern Colorado where downsloping flow is expected
through early Thursday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Widespread snow showers can be expected across much of the Interior
West courtesy of the upper trough and reinforcing shortwave energy
passing through the region, and rain for the coastal areas and
lower elevations of the Southwest. There will be some abatement in
the rainfall across southern California compared to earlier in the
week, so no risk areas are currently warranted for the new Day 4
and Day 5 excessive rainfall outlooks. Heavier precipitation is
likely to make a return to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend as
a more organized storm system approaches from the Gulf of Alaska.

Across the central U.S., a swath of moderate to heavy snow is
likely from North Dakota to northern Minnesota on Wednesday with
the first low pressure system, and rain farther to the south. Rain
develops over the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Mid-Atlantic
towards the end of the week in conjunction with the next low, and
there is an increasing potential for heavy inland snow across the
northern half of New England by Friday and into Saturday, and rain
closer to the coast. Trends with this will be closely monitored in
the days ahead.

A wide expanse of well above average temperatures is expected at
the beginning of the period Wednesday from the southern Plains to
the Great Lakes, with some readings 30 degrees above mid-late
February standards over the Midwest equating to highs in the 60s up
to the greater Chicago area, with the potential for some daily
record highs to be set. The cold front sweeping across the Midwest
and Ohio Valley suppresses the warmth farther to the southeast by
Friday, with areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas
having highs 15-20 degrees above average. Much of the central and
eastern portions of the country return to generally within 5
degrees of climatology by next weekend, with readings slightly
colder than average over the northern tier states and portions of
the West.

Hamrick



Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw