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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0701Z Jun 12, 2024)
 
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Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Jun 19 2024


...Heatwave to spread from the Southwest to parts of the central
and eastern U.S. during the period...

...Excessive Rainfall Threat for Florida wanes this weekend with
focus shift to the central Gulf Coast into next week...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance mostly remains in good overall agreement into next week
with respect to the overall pattern, featuring mean ridging over
the West progressing eastward through the period over the central
and then eastern U.S., and with mean troughing settling in over the
West in the wake. Guidance indicates a southern stream shortwave
over the Southwest will lift northeast rounding the building ridge
with additional embedded waves translating the northern tier as the
mean troughing begins to take hold back over the West.

An upper-level weakness over Florida this week will slowly
retrograde over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into next week.
This will shift a stormy pattern out from Florida to the Gulf and
central to western Gulf Coast, with the ridge transitioning over
the East also helping to funnel tropical moisture northward.

Accordingly, the WPC medium range product suite was primarily
derived from a composite blend of best clustered guidance of the 12
UTC ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET, the 01 UTC National Blend of Models and
WPC continuity for Saturday into Monday in a pattern with average
to above average predictability. Switched to a composite of the
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and best clustered ECMWF early-mid next
week amid growing forecast spread.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A complex excessive rainfall episode ongoing over the central and
southern Florida Peninsula should wane this weekend as the main
tropical moisture and system/flow focus likely shifts to both over
the western Atlantic and also back across the Gulf of Mexico and
the central to western Gulf Coast region. A Day4/Saturday ERO
Marginal Risk remains for lingering activity over Florida. However,
as the weekend progresses and into early next week, there is a
growing guidance signal that moisture influx and possible heavy
rainfall may refocus and increase into the central Gulf Coast and
vicinity. A Day 5/Sunday Marginal Risk ERO has been introduced
given the moist pattern. Uncertainty remains, particularly with the
potential amount of rainfall and with westward extent into the
western Gulf through early-mid next week.

Elsewhere, a convective precipitation threat will shift across the
central and northern Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this
weekend as southern stream troughing ejects northeastward toward
the region from the Southwest to focus lift/instability. WPC ERO
Marginal Risk areas have been introduced for Day4/Saturday and Day
5/Sunday given system progression and pooling moisture/instability.

As for anomalous temperatures, an amplified upper ridge slated to
steadily/broadly shift from the Southwest through the south-
central U.S. to the East over the coming week will produce much
warmer than average temperatures and the threat for some record
heat. Temperatures will already be rather hot over portions of the
South before the even broader region of heat expands into the
Midwest/Ohio Valley then Mid-Atlantic and vicinity into next week
as the upper-level ridging builds in. Highs are forecast well into
the 90s, potentially low 100s, and with lows in the 70s providing
little relief from the heat overnight. The Climate Prediction
Center continues a heat threat into week 2.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw