Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026

...Multi-day heavy rain/flooding and severe weather from the
south-central to east-central U.S. into next week...

...Pattern Overview...

The large scale pattern features a tight, broad trough across the
northern tier with multiple impulses moving through the flow with a
closed low/progressive trough in the southern stream that
eventually phases with the northern stream by the end of the
extended period as upper ridging builds over the Southwest. This
is supportive of a multi- day heavy rain event from the Southern
Plains to the Southeast. Meanwhile, flow will be progressive across
the Northern tier with renewed precipitation chances each day
across the Northwest.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest guidance continues to show good agreement with the
placement of the upper low as the period begins Monday, however
there remains timing differences with the low as it tracks over the
Gulf states. There are some relatively minor timing differences in
the northern stream flow and various clipper like systems, but
these differences do not really impact the overall evolution of
resulting sensible weather. WPC forecast maintained continuity by
utilizing a multi-model compromise initially before transitioning
to a heavier weighting of the ensemble means.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Return flow from the Gulf and instability will help fuel a multi-
day heavy rain event with potential severe thunderstorms and
flooding threats. Runoff threats may also build with each round of
rain given a repeating pattern with training potential. A Marginal
Risk area for a threat of excessive rainfall for flooding/runoff
remains in place for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Tennessee Valley on Day 4/Monday. Active weather looks to expand
northward as a cold front pushes east, with a large Marginal Risk
on the Day 5/Tuesday ERO from the Southern Plains into the
Midwest. SPC is also highlighting severe weather potential in a
similar region for Tuesday. This activity renews itself across the
southern U.S. beyond Tuesday, expanding also into the East-Central
and East mid to late week.

To the north, clipper like systems will progress through the
broadly
cyclonic upper flow ushering in periods of wintry precipitation
along with a threat of high winds mainly from the Cascades to the
Northern/Central Rockies and Northern Plains. Cold air sinking into
the north-central part of the country may also support broad snows
on the northwest and northern periphery of emerging precipitation
shields.

The amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper ridge will
promote significant springtime warming over the central and eastern
U.S. into mid-week with moderation by Thursday following frontal
passage. Early week temperatures will be 20-30 degrees above
average, with 80s reaching as far north as parts of the Ohio Valley
and Mid- Atlantic. Daily records could become widespread. Above
normal temperatures are also expected to grow with time across the
Southwest into the High Plains with the Northwest and northern tier
states closer to normal through the period.

Campbell/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw