Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
Model Diagnostics Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1935Z Jun 24, 2019)
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Valid Jun 24/1200 UTC thru Jun 28/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air

12Z Model Evaluation...with Final Confidence and Preferences

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

---19Z UPDATE---
No change to the preliminary preference with the 12Z cycles of the
ECMWF, CMC and UKMET now in.

Models are in excellent agreement showing a trough lifting
northeast from the Plains into eastern Canada by tomorrow
afternoon. After that, there is very good agreement with
amplification of a trough along the West Coast and a ridge over
much of the CONUS to the east of the Rockies. Isoheights at a
variety of pressure levels are well clustered, and the
deterministic models are generally contained within the envelope
of ensemble spread. The 00Z UKMET has the West Coast trough
centered on the western edge of available models, but is otherwise
similar to other models on the overall pattern.

Nevertheless, there is inherent uncertainty with the QPF related
to convective processes. This is evident in some run-to-run
changes of the location of precipitation maxima, likely due to a
slightly different evolution of convection in the same overall
synoptic environment. This will become even more challenging as
the ridge builds by mid-week and mid-upper level flow across the
central and eastern U.S. weakens.

Given the broad agreement on the synoptic pattern and major waves,
the preference is for a general model blend. This will help
account for some of the convective uncertainty. Forecast
confidence is listed as slightly above average, but is essentially
above average on the synoptic pattern and average for the
mid-summer on mesoscale details and precise placement of QPF

Model trends at
500 mb forecasts at