Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
558 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 12Z Thu 20 Nov 2025 - 12Z Mon 24 Nov 2025

...Synoptic Overview...

During the course of the extended period a broad upper low will be
present over the Bering Sea region, and multiple shortwaves will 
be pivoting around the base of the main low. These shortwaves will
lead to sustaining the development of a few surface lows. The 
most impactful low is expected to reach the Alaska Peninsula 
vicinity by Thursday into early Friday, and then weakens as it 
emerges over the northern Gulf after that. It will bring high seas
and strong winds from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula, and 
will also direct a plume of deep moisture into the southern coast
with heavy coastal rain and mountain snow from the Kenai Peninsula
to the Prince William Sound region.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite featured decent synoptic scale 
agreement for the end of the week, including the main upper level
vortex over the Bering Sea. There are increasing timing and 
amplitude differences going into next weekend, including the GFS
that is more amplified with an upper trough extending over the
Alaska Peninsula and the western Gulf when compared to the model
consensus. The CMC is stronger with surface high pressure south of
the Aleutians by next weekend as well. There has been a trend for
a stronger ridge axis near the western Alaska coast by Sunday, 
and model agreement has improved with the next incoming storm 
system across the Bering by Sunday into Monday. A general
deterministic model compromise was used for late in the week,
followed by a greater percentage of the ensemble means by Sunday
into Monday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of high winds and rough seas will affect much of the
Bering Sea region and the adjacent coastlines of western Alaska
and the Aleutians, with multiple low pressure systems moving
through the region. The low pressure system that deepens near the
Alaska Peninsula late in the week is expected to have an enhanced
moisture plume directed at the south-central Gulf Coast from the
Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region, and a heavy
precipitation area remains on the medium range hazards graphic to
account for this, mainly for heavy mountain snows. Meanwhile, 
temperatures across the Interior should generally be in the 10s to
middle 20s for highs, and 5-10 above for the normally colder 
valley locations. Highs in the 30s to lower 40s will be more 
likely near the southern coast.


Campbell/Hamrick




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html