Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
633 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 18 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 22 Nov 2025

...Synoptic Overview...

During the course of the extended period a broad upper low will be
present over the Bering and multiple shortwaves will be pivoting
around the base of the flow. These will lead to sustaining the 
development of a few surface lows. The most impactful low is 
expected to reach the Alaska Peninsula vicinity by Thursday, and 
then weakens as it emerges over the northern Gulf by Friday. It
will usher in significant waves to the Aleutians and will also
direct a plume of deep moisture into the southern coast which will
lead to heavy precipitation.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The latest suite of guidance were in decent agreement for much of
the extend period, a nice change from several days of high
variability in storm evolution. There is broad synoptic scale 
agreement with the main trough over the Bering, but multiple 
mesoscale differences including a stronger low solution with the 
UKMET and GFS near the Alaska Peninsula. Looking ahead to Friday, 
the GFS becomes stronger with a surface low tracking from 
southwest to northeast into the Gulf, and big latitudinal 
differences are apparent with a new low pressure system on the 
western horizon by next Saturday across the western Bering. 

WPC used a multi-model approach for a majority of the forecast and
utilizing the ensemble means for mid and latter portions of the
period.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of high winds and rough seas will affect much of the
Bering Sea region and the adjacent coastlines of western Alaska
and the Aleutians, with multiple low pressure systems moving
through the region. The low pressure system that deepens near the
Alaska Peninsula late in the week is expected to have an enhanced
moisture plume directed at the south-central Gulf Coast from the
Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region, and a heavy
precipitation area has been added to the medium range hazards
graphic to account for this, mainly for heavy mountain snows.
Meanwhile, temperatures across the Interior will ease up from
being subzero and are expected to moderate to the singles and
teens above zero as southerly flow increases.


Campbell/Hamrick




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html