Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
637 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Valid 12Z Sat 06 Dec 2025 - 12Z Wed 10 Dec 2025


...Overview...

A deep mid-level positioned over eastern Russia/Kamchatka will
eject multiple shortwaves that will merge with the newly 
developing closed low over Southern Alaska over the weekend; which
will further amplify the low along the Gulf Coast into early next
week. Meanwhile, Siberian high pressure will persist and expand 
into the Bering Strait and parts of the Seward 
Peninsula/northwestern Alaska. 


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The ECWMF and GFS continue to provide the most reasonable
solutions of this pattern and were utilized more heavily than 
other guidance. A previously notes, the deterministic Canadian 
model did not feature in any of the blends due to notable 
inconsistencies with the Euro/GFS clustered solutions, which
somewhat persisted with the most recent cycle. There's 
uncertainty on where exactly along the Gulf Coast a potentially 
impactful mid- level low and associated surface wave will set up 
late this weekend into next week.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Multiple waves of surface low pressure will produce rain and 
mountain snow over much of the Gulf Coast through this weekend.
The southern tier will likely have strong, gusty winds along with
the potential for heavy precipitation with this low near the Gulf
Coast. Where this weekend/early next week's low sets up will 
determine the heavy precipitation potential along the Gulf Coast.

High pressure from eastern Siberia to the North Slope will 
promote below average temperatures for those areas with the
strong, gusty northeast winds. Temperatures over portions of the 
Interior/Yukon Flats could drop well below average (-30F to -40F) 
this Friday night into Saturday morning. 


Campbell/Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html