Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025

Valid 12Z Thu 8 May 2025 - 12Z Mon 12 May 2025


...General Overview...

The strong low pressure system over the Gulf early this week should
be weakening and sinking to the south by the beginning of the 
forecast period Thursday, with a stationary frontal boundary 
draped across the Interior. Meanwhile, an organizing storm system
approaches from the west and is in the vicinity of the Aleutians
and southern Bering by next weekend. The strong Arctic surface 
high across northern Alaska weakens through time with a gradual
warm up expected over the upcoming week.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 12Z guidance is fairly well clustered for Thursday across 
mainland Alaska and with the weakening surface low over the Gulf, 
so a general deterministic mode blend works as a starting point in
the forecast process. Looking ahead to Friday, timing and 
latitudinal differences increase with the next incoming storm 
system across the Aleutians. Similar to yesterday, the GFS/GEFS
are generally more progressive, and the ECENS/ECMWF slower. Model
spread by Sunday/Monday is less compared to yesterday's Day 8 
forecast, so ensemble means were increased to just half by next
Monday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Winds and precipitation are expected to decrease across the
southern coastal areas by Thursday.  Mostly cloudy conditions 
will prevail as a synoptic scale trough and embedded upper low 
will remain over the Gulf. The next best chance for organized
precipitation will be next Sunday as the next storm system
arrives. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm up to above 
average levels across much of the Interior, with highs perhaps
making a run at 70 degrees for some of the lower valley locations
by next weekend.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html