Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
628 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 10 Oct 2025 - 12Z Tue 14 Oct 2025


...Series of potent storms offer Aleutians to western and 
southern Alaska high wind/wave and heavy rain threats...


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Guidance remains well clustered for Friday/Saturday in an 
energetic and stormy pattern with above normal predictability. 
Favor a mainly 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model and GEFS/ECMWF
ensemble mean blend. Forecast spread has decreased some into
longer time frames with respect to the ejection of current west
Pacific Typhoon Halong into the westerlies to Alaska this
weekend into early next week, bolstering forecast confidence in a
potentially deep and impactful storm. There may also well be yet 
another deepened low pressure system in store upstream to monitor.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A stormy weather pattern will remain across parts of the Alaska 
domain this week in an overall warm pattern. A lead system will 
work through northern Alaska midweek, with some locally enhanced 
winds and precipitation lingering over the North Slope and the 
Interior into Thursday/Friday in wake flow of the low. Upper 
trough energy split over the northern Gulf of Alaska may also act
to focus modest mid-late week low development with some 
precipitation/unsettled weather for southern/southeast Alaska,
followed by weekend frontal passage and some moderate gap flows.

Upstream, closed upper low/trough development will support a main
deep mean surface storm/low position over the Aleutians and 
Bering Sea late week through early next week that will offer a 
prolonged opportunity for periods of high winds/waves and wrapping
rainfall. Meanwhile, there is growing guidance signal for a deep 
and potent storm to lift in advance of this position over the 
weekend into early next week to focus a potentially significant 
threat for high winds/waves, wrapping rainfall and potential for coastal
flooding into Southwest/Western Alaska along with enhanced snow
potential more over colder northwestern Alaska. This strong 
extratropical low will have favorable upper support and a deep 
moisture connection to Typhoon Halong. Approach and downstream 
undercutting energy and system/frontal progression across the 
Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska should act to enhance 
lead inflow to fuel growing precipitation to spread across Kodiak 
Island and SouthCentral to Southeast Alaska Sunday into early next
week with downstream translation. Additional deep low approach on
the heels of this system is also then possible.


Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html