Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
430 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 12Z Wed 03 Dec 2025 - 12Z Sun 07 Dec 2025


...Overview...

A closed low will amplify over the Aleutians early-to-midweek 
before phasing with energy from a northern stream trough over the 
western mainland and negatively tilting across the eastern/central
mainland by mid-week. Upper ridging persists over the Panhandle. 
An eastern Siberian ridge will gradually deepen while another low
develops over the Gulf Coast next weekend.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A multi-model blend consisting of the deterministic guidance and 
ensemble means were used in the day 4 blend. By day 5 the Euro
suite emerges as the most reasonable depiction of the more
progressive phasing of troughs over the mainland, therefore the 
EC and ECE were favored. The GFS is removed from the blend on day
6 due to an outlier solution with respect to the trough pattern
over the mainland. The ECE and GEFS were favored in the days 7 and
8 blends with more agreement in the deterministic GFS and CMC by
day 8, thus their inclusion in the blend.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A cold airmass will spread southward beginning at the middle of
next week as high pressure builds over eastern Siberia, the 
Bering Sea and the North Slope. Meanwhile, showers and mountain 
snow will persist along the Gulf Coast. There's potential for
heavy precipitation along the Panhandle next Friday and Saturday
associated with a low pressure system.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html