Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
537 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 12Z Sun 26 Oct 2025 - 12Z Thu 30 Oct 2025


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Latest guidance is clustered better than normal through much of 
the upcoming medium range time period. There is good agreement on 
the overall large scale pattern, albeit with expected uncertainty
in the details. A 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend is 
favored Sunday into Tuesday to mitigate smaller scale differences
as consistent with individual system predictability. Switched 
preference to a GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and best compatible 12 UTC 
ECMWF ensemble mean blend at longer time frames amid growing 
forecast spread and lowering predictability. This solution
includes the following of latest guidance trends to offer a deep 
but more southward adjusted storm track over the far northeast 
Pacific in about a week. However, there remains some opportunity 
for additional with phasing system energies to the north to lift 
the low and impacts more closely toward far Southeast Alaska to 
monitor. Another deep and impactful system upstream in a renewed 
stormy pattern is also expected to emerge/evolve and threaten the
Aleutians then downstream to the Gulf of Alaska in about a week.

...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A main upper low/trough will drift slowly southeastward over the 
Bering Sea this weekend while multiple waves rotate around it. 
The upper low/trough is forecast to elongate by early next week as
energies shift from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. 
Expect unsettled weather for West/Southwest through the Aleutians 
to Southern/Southeast Alaska in this pattern. Inland impacts do
not seem to reach normal hazards thresholds for most areas, but 
would include more susceptible Southeast Alaska recovery areas. 
Downstream, expect northern Gulf of Alaska system development with
moderate precipitation and wrapping winds impact potential. In 
this pattern, a lead upper low/trough set to linger over the Gulf 
through the weekend into next week will steadily lose influence.
Meanwhile, an aforementioned storm in a renewed stormy pattern 
upstream is then expected to emerge/evolve to threaten the 
Aleutians then downstream to the Gulf of Alaska in about a week.

Mainly benign and mild weather is expected for much of northern 
and interior Alaska with relatively higher pressure forecast to 
develop over these regions this weekend into next week.

Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html