Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
602 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Valid 12Z Wed 12 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sun 16 Nov 2025

***Strong low pressure system may affect the Aleutians next
 weekend***


...Synoptic Overview...

Most of mainland Alaska should be relatively quiet in terms of
impactful weather through the middle to end of the upcoming week,
with storm systems of consequence mainly confined to maritime
areas and close to the coast. A strengthening low approaches the
southern Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island towards Friday, and
the Bering Sea and Aleutians have multiple low pressure systems on
the distant forecast horizon for next weekend.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite is generally in good synoptic scale
agreement for Wednesday and into Thursday, with a multi-
deterministic model blend working out well as a starting point.
The GFS is a little to the south of the model consensus with the
low over the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, but still within the
ensemble spread. There is now better agreement with the second low
pressure system tracking towards the Gulf and Alaska Peninsula
towards the end of the week, with pressures generally on the order
of 975 to 985 mb per recent model guidance.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutians next weekend, both the CMC and 
ECMWF convey the potential for a sub-960 mb low reaching the 
Aleutians. The GFS is definitely weaker and slower to arrive, but 
the AIFS guidance is more aligned with the ECMWF idea, so a 
stronger storm is being depicted on the Day 7 and 8 pressure 
progs. Confidence is not quite high enough yet to depict any wind 
or heavy precipitation hazards on the medium range hazards chart, 
but this could change in the days ahead. The ensemble means were 
increased to about 40% by next weekend.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern
coastal areas of the state through Friday as the Gulf lows bring
in some onshore flow, but it mainly appears to be light to
moderate in intensity for the most part. Temperatures are
generally expected to be near to slightly below average across 
much of the Interior through the end of the week, and above
average near the Arctic Coast. Colder temperatures likely arrive
by next weekend, with some subzero highs possible across
northeastern portions of the mainland.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a rather stormy and unsettled
weather pattern likely develops over the Bering Sea region and the
Aleutians. A low pressure system is currently expected to move off
eastern Siberia and become occluded over the western Bering, and
potentially an even stronger low arrives from the southwest, and 
affecting the eastern Aleutians and the eastern Bering by next 
Sunday. This latter system can be traced to what will be the 
future remnants of Typhoon Fung-Wong that is currently near the 
Philippines. Should the stronger scenario come to pass, strong 
winds, heavy rains, and high seas could all be realized. This will
continue to be closely monitored in the days ahead.

Hamrick




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html