Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
522 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 02 Dec 2025 - 12Z Sat 06 Dec 2025


...Overview...

A closed low will amplify over the Aleutians early next week 
before phasing with energy from a northern stream trough over the
western mainland and propagating eastward by mid-week. Upper 
ridging persists over the Panhandle with a couple shortwaves
rotating through on Monday and Wednesday. An eastern Siberian 
ridge will gradually build into the Bering Sea before halting due 
to the phasing systems to its east.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Most of the models were in reasonable agreement about the overall
synoptic evolution of the pattern during the medium range period.
Some models; including the GFS, Canadian and ensemble means, 
trended deeper with the closed mid-level low over the Aleutians on
day 4. A general model blend consisting of the Euro suite, GFS and
Canadian were used for that. 

The Euro suite and canadian ensemble begin phasing the two 
systems earlier than the gfs suite and canadian on day 5. The 
uncertainty surrounding this phasing process prompted a broader 
multi-model blend incorporating the gfs, euro and canadian suites 
through day 6. The deterministic guidance all depict a closed low 
over the western mainland on day 8, while the ECE and CMCE have 
some sort of trough feature over the mainland as well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A deep low pressure system will bring rain, mountain snow and 
strong winds from Bristol Bay/AKPen to eastern portions of the 
mainland coast next week. Warm Gulf air will surge north through 
the Gulf Coast and into Southcentral AK beginning late early next
week. There's a notable EFI signal for extreme temperatures with 
maximum temperatures being 15-30 degrees above average across much
of the mainland early next week. Another impactful round of
precipitation will arrive Tuesday over Bristol Bay, down to the 
Aleutians/AKPen and spreading across the Central Gulf Coast. The
developing trough over the mainland will promote below average
temperatures gradually spreading from the north slope down into 
the interior mid-to-late next week.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html