Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
659 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Valid 12Z Sat 08 Nov 2025 - 12Z Wed 12 Nov 2025

...Strong low pressure system will affect the Aleutians Friday 
into the weekend with possible high winds with heavy precipitation
possible for the southern Panhandle this weekend...

...Overview...

An upper level and surface low will be in place when the period 
begins Saturday, weakening in favor of another upper low that 
lifts towards the Panhandle. This low will bring a period of heavy
rainfall (and mountain snows) to particularly southern parts of 
the Panhandle region this weekend. Moderate gap winds will also be
possible on the backside of this system. Meanwhile, upstream, the
next strong upper/surface low looks to reach the western 
Aleutians by Friday, with some weakening as it pushes eastward 
into early next week and another shortwave rounding the base of 
this trough spins up another upper low in the Gulf next week. High
winds may be a hazard with this low as it moves through the 
western Aleutians. Another modestly strong low looks to approach 
the western Aleutians around next Wednesday with another round of 
high winds. The general trough pattern should cool temperatures 
across much of the Mainland and the Alaska Peninsula compared to 
the near term, with areas of the western Mainland generally below 
normal.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Model guidance today continues to show above average agreement on
the synoptic scale pattern described above. Uncertainties, even 
into next week, include exact locations and timing of systems. The
guidance shows very good agreement that the low in the western 
Bering Sea this weekend may have a central pressure as low as the 
upper 940s. There is some variability in the timing of a shortwave
as it spins up an occluded surface low off the main system in the
Gulf, with the GFS a bit stronger and more south with the upper 
system than consensus. There is agreement that another low will 
approach the Aleutians mid next week, but uncertainty in the 
timing. 

The WPC forecast today used a general deterministic model blend 
through Day 5, gradually increasing weighting of the ensemble 
means to 60 percent of the blend by Day 8. This maintains good 
agreement with yesterdays WPC forecast as well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A surface low pressure system in the Gulf at the start of the 
period will lead to precipitation chances across Southcentral 
Alaska. Moist inflow to the east from both this weakening low and 
the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow for rain and 
snow into Southeast Alaska late week, with heavy precipitation 
possible mainly for the southern portions of the Panhandle. 
Farther inland, light snow showers are possible across the 
Mainland. On the backside of the second low pressure system, gap 
winds are possible and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island.
These should generally be in the 30-45kt range, and thus staying 
below thresholds for a High Winds hazard. 

The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should 
come in with moderate precipitation around Friday. High winds 
potentially in excess of 50-55 knots are possible, with southerly 
flow ahead of the low system Friday, and then the core of the low 
pressure system may track over the western Aleutians Friday night 
and east across the Aleutians on Saturday. This allows for a High 
Winds area for Friday-Saturday in the Day 3-7 Hazards. The low 
generally looks to weaken as it moves east Sunday into early next 
week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest precipitation is 
forecast to move across the Alaska Peninsula later Saturday into 
Sunday and into Kodiak Island and Southcentral early next week, 
depending on the low track and timing.

Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range 
period. The Alaska Peninsula and Y-K Delta will see below average 
temperatures for both highs and lows lasting there into Saturday 
and gradually expanding north. Above normal temperatures in the 
eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in magnitude and scope early
next week, but the North Slope is likely to stay above normal 
(highs in the upper teens). 


Santorelli




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html