Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
443 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 12Z Mon 01 Dec 2025 - 12Z Fri 05 Dec 2025


...Heavy Precipitation along Gulf Coast next week...


...Overview...

A closed low will amplify over the Aleutians early next week 
before phasing with a northern stream trough over the western
mainland and propagating eastward by mid-week. Upper ridging 
persists over the Panhandle. An eastern Siberian ridge will 
gradually build into the Bering Sea before halting due to the
phasing systems to its east.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

There's reasonable agreement on the overall synoptic evolution of
the mid-level pattern throughout the period. A general model blend
consisting of the Euro suite, GFS and Canadian suites were used 
for the days 4, 5 and 6 blends. The GEFS mean was introduced to 
the blend on day 7 and continued through the rest of the period. 
The determinstic GFS and Canadian have a more amplified trough 
over the North Pacific/Aleutians through next Wednesday compared 
to the Euro suites because the Euro is more progressive with the
phasing of the two streams over the western mainland. There's an
unusual amount of spread in the guidance beyond day 6 due to the
aforementioned phasing of streams.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A deep low pressure system will bring heavy rain, heavy mountain 
snow and strong winds from Bristol Bay/AKPen to eastern portions
of the mainland coast next week. Warm Gulf air will surge north 
through the Gulf Coast and into Southcentral AK beginning late 
this weekend and continuing through early next week. There's a 
notable EFI signal for extreme temperatures with maximum 
temperatures being 15-30 degrees above average across much of the 
mainland early next week. The most significant precipitation will 
occur Sunday night, when an atmospheric river arrives along the 
Central Gulf Coast. This will be followed by another impactful 
round arriving Tuesday over Bristol Bay, down to the 
Aleutians/AKPen and spreading across the Central Gulf Coast.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html