Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
556 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Valid 12Z Thu 13 Nov 2025 - 12Z Mon 17 Nov 2025

***Strong low pressure system expected to affect the Aleutians 
 next weekend with high winds***


...Synoptic Overview...

Most of mainland Alaska should be relatively quiet in terms of
impactful weather through the end of the upcoming week, with 
storm systems of consequence mainly confined to maritime areas and
close to the coast. A low pressure system approaches the southern
Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island towards Friday with terrain
enhanced rains and mountain snows. A much stronger storm is
becoming increasingly likely to affect the central Aleutians and
the Bering by next weekend.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite is generally in good synoptic scale
agreement for Thursday into Friday, with a multi-deterministic 
model blend working out well as a starting point. There is good
overall agreement with the low pressure system tracking towards 
the Gulf and Alaska Peninsula towards the end of the week, with 
pressures generally on the order of 975 to 980 mb per recent 
model guidance.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutians next weekend, both the CMC and 
ECMWF convey the potential for a sub-960 mb low reaching the 
Aleutians, and the GFS has trended strongly in this direction as
well compared to its weaker solution yesterday. Therefore, confidence
is now high enough to depict a high wind area on the medium range
hazards chart for the 15th and 16th. The ensemble means were 
increased to about 40% by Sunday into Monday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for the southern
coastal areas of the state through Friday as the Gulf low brings 
in some onshore flow, but it mainly appears to be light to 
moderate in intensity for the most part with no hazard areas
needed. Temperatures are generally expected to be near to 
slightly below average across much of the Interior through the end
of the week, and above average near the Arctic Coast. Colder 
temperatures likely arrive by next weekend, with some subzero 
highs likely across northeastern portions of the mainland.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a rather stormy and unsettled
weather pattern likely develops over the Bering Sea region and the
Aleutians. A low pressure system is currently expected to move off
eastern Siberia and become occluded over the western Bering, and
replaced by an even stronger low that arrives from the southwest,
and affecting the central and eastern Aleutians, and the eastern 
Bering by Saturday night into Sunday. This latter system can be 
traced to what will be the future remnants of Typhoon Fung-Wong 
that is currently near the Philippines. This will likely result in 
strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas for this region. This 
will continue to be closely monitored in the days ahead.

Hamrick




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html