Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
628 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 12Z Wed 26 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sun 30 Nov 2025

...Overview...

The medium range period begins Wednesday with an upper ridge over
the Gulf, an Arctic upper high, and a weak shortwave or upper low
cutting across the interior fro East to West. A weak low pressure
system south of the Aleutians will weaken as it gets forced
northward into the Bering Sea late next week. By next weekend, a
very amplified pattern will develop over Alaska with an
anomalously strong ridge over the Gulf and eastern Mainland, and
another surface low lifting north towards the Aleutians. This may
bring a period of moderate to heavy rain or snow to parts of the
Southern Coast and AK Peninsula region.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

There is generally good agreement on the large scale pattern
through much of the period, but still plenty of uncertainty in the
details which impacts sensible weather and especially heavy
rainfall potential across the Southern Coast region next weekend.
In the beginning of the period, there was some uncertainty in the
evolution over/near the Gulf region with how quickly ridging will
finally build in. The CMC was quicker to build in the anomalous
ridge, but the GFS and especially the UKMET and ECMWF suggest a
weak shortwave cuts through ahead of and real ridge building.
Despite this, a general model blend, anchored by the ECMWF, served
as a good starting point for the Days 4 and 5 forecast. By Friday,
a deeper surface low should begin to lift towards the eastern
Aleutians and by the weekend there is a lot of uncertainty in the
details and timing of this low. The models are in agreement on
it's presence, so felt like a ensemble mean/deterministic model
(ECMWF) blend worked well for now. 


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With weak low pressure systems and persistant onshore flow, the
central Aleutians through the Southern Coast and Panhandle region
will remain unsettled with light rain or snow mid to late next
week, but nothing particularly hazardous or heavy. Onshore flow
will strengthen ahead of the deepening low pressure system into
the Aleutians region next weekend to promote more widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation especially across the Alaska
Peninsula to Kenai region and Kodiak Island. It was enough of a
signal in the models to introduce a heavy precipitation area on
todays WPC hazards chart valid next Friday into Saturday. Lighter
rain may spread into parts of southwest Alaska and the Panhandle 
region as well with this system. For the most part, much of the 
interior mainland may be mostly dry through the period. 

Temperatures could be below normal to start the period across 
Eastern Alaska and the Southeast. The entire state however should
trend warmer into next weekend as anomalous upper ridging builds
in. Widespread anomalous 10 to 20+ degrees above normal are
possible especially for Western/Central Alaska and the North
Slope. Southern parts of the Panhandle may stay closer to normal 
or even slightly below.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html