Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
523 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 12Z Sun 30 Nov 2025 - 12Z Thu 04 Dec 2025


...Heavy Precipitation along Gulf Coast this weekend into early
next week...


...Overview...

A pair of mid-level closed lows and embedded shortwaves will 
rotate through the Aleutians, AKPen and Central Gulf Coast this 
weekend, while upper ridging persists over the Panhandle.
Elsewhere, a northern stream trough will propagate across the 
Cukchi Sea, North Slope and Beaufort Sea. An eastern Siberian 
ridge will gradually build into the Bering Sea before the second 
closed low squeezes into the AKPen and phases with the northern 
stream trough over the western mainland by mid-week.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

There's reasonable agreement on the overall synoptic evolution of
the mid-level pattern throughout the period. A general model blend
consisting of the Euro suite, GFS and Canadian were used for the 
days 4 and 5 blends. The GEFS mean was introduced to the blend on
day 6 and continued through the rest of the period, followed by
the Canadian ensemble mean which was introduced on day 7 and
continued through day 8. The GFS has a more amplified trough over
the North Pacific/Aleutians through next Wednesday compared to the
Euro and Canadian suites.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A series of low pressure systems will bring heavy rain, heavy
mountain snow and strong winds to the Gulf Coast, from the AKPen
to the Panhandle this weekend. Warm Gulf air will surge north
through the Gulf Coast and into Southcentral AK beginning late 
this weekend and continuing through early next week. There's a
notable EFI signal for extreme temperatures with maximum temperatures
being 15-30 degrees above average across much of the mainland
early next week. The most significant precipitation will occur
Sunday night, when an atmospheric river arrives along the Central
Gulf Coast. This will be followed by another impactful round 
arriving Tuesday over the Yukon, Kuskokwim, Bristol Bay, down to 
the Aleutians/AKPen and spreading across the Central Gulf Coast.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html