Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
704 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 12Z Mon 17 Nov 2025 - 12Z Fri 21 Nov 2025


...Powerhouse Storm to Impact Aleutians/Bering/Southwest Alaska...


...Synoptic Overview...

A potent storm will be lifting through the Gulf and Bering
ushering in high winds and waves to the Aleutians, Southwest
Mainland and adjacent islands. Rain will also accompany this main
feature and other disturbances moving through the Gulf of Alaska 
and Bering Sea, primarily focusing along coastal areas with some
mountain snows possible. 

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Much of the Interior and North Slope vicinity will be cooler with
limited areas of precipitation on a mean upper trough. Periods of
enhanced wind/waves along with precipitation is expected to reach
the Gulf and focus along the southern coast and Southeast. 
A deep extratropical low with energy and moisture connection to 
current West Pacific Typhoon Fung-Wong looks to focus impacts into
the Aleutians/southern Bering Sea and may affect Southwest Alaska
and into next week. Substantial spread in the guidance persists
keeping the specifics of timing and location of wind, wave, and
precipitation impacts uncertain. Today the ECMWF position was far
far displaced from the other globals and the weighting and heavy 
lean from the past few days was reduced given this trend. A 
multi-model blend was utilized initially before leaning to a 
combo of the CMC/UK/EC/GFS and means. Overall this held the system
back over the Bering/Southwest Alaska. 

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Mean temperatures are generally expected to trend below average 
across much of the Interior and the North Slope over much the 
forecast period. A strong and impactful extratropcial low is 
slated to lift into the Bering Sea; which has some energy and long
fetch moisture connections to current west-Pacific Typhoon Fung- 
Wong. This system is expected to have strong winds, heavy rains, 
and high seas through the Aleutians/Bering Sea and into some 
locations across Southwest Alaska. Downstream translation of 
system energies and moderate precipitation/winds through the 
Alaska Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska and southern Alaska tier, 
keeping conditions wet and unsettled.

Campbell




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html