Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
642 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 12Z Thu 02 Oct 2025 - 12Z Mon 06 Oct 2025

...Synoptic Overview...

A nearly stationary trough with embedded lows will persist from 
the Chukotsk Peninsula east across the Bering Strait and over much
of the North Slope through the period. A series of longwave 
troughs moving east to the south of the upper low will keep the
weather active across much of mainland Alaska through Monday. A
large and strong low will move from the western Bering and
Aleutians across the Bering and into Southwest Alaska, which will
dominate the weather pattern over all but the Panhandle of Alaska
this weekend into early next week.

Due to an eastward trend in the guidance, the track of the large
Bering low has been adjusted about 100 miles east of where the low
was expected to track yesterday. With continued south and eastward
shifts, additional track adjustments are likely.

...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A blend of 50% 12Z EC, and a 30-20% blend of the 00Z runs of the
EC and CMC were used for this forecast period. The deterministic
guidance has been in great agreement overall, despite the
complexity of the weather pattern. The 00Z runs of the EC and CMC
were uncanny in their agreement on the surface features and the
track of the large Bering low straight through D8/Monday. However,
the 12Z EC maintained that same strength (970s low), but also
continued the progression of trending the track of the low
eastward with time, which has been the trend in all of the
guidance over the past 24 hours or so. The GFS runs, especially
the 00Z run were eliminated due to poor agreement with the other
guidances.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Once again, there are no hazards highlighted on the hazards chart
for the first 6 days of October. The large Bering low has some
potential of producing winds that near the high-wind/storm force
criteria as it's rapidly deepening as it crosses the western and
central Aleutians. However, given the remoteness of the Aleutians,
their high tolerance for adverse weather, and the short duration
when the deepening low will be capable of producing storm force
winds, have opted to keep out the threat for now. Heavy rain may
impact localized areas, particularly many of the coastal ranges at
different times through this weekend and early next week
especially, but here too there will not be quite enough moisture
available to produce heavy enough precipitation to reach those
criteria. The potential for both of these hazards will continue to
be monitored. 

&&

Wegman



Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html